用生成式AI分析企业财报会话，预测经济走势
Generative AI, Managerial Expectations, and Economic Activity
- 通过生成式AI分析超12万份财报会话，提取管理层预期
- 预测GDP、生产、就业，提前10个季度，优于传统调查数据
- 整合企业、行业、宏观三类预期，提升预测精度和时效
我们利用生成式AI从12万份以上的企业财报会话转录文本中提取管理层对未来经济前景的预期。由此构建的AI经济指数可提前10个季度预测GDP增长、生产水平和就业变化，超越现有调查类预测指标。行业与企业层面的细分指标也提供了关于特定产业及个体企业活动的有价值信息。将企业、行业及宏观经济预期整合而成的综合指标，显著增强了国家与行业层面增长预测的能力和预测周期。研究结果表明，管理层预期为经济活动提供了独特洞察，对宏观经济与微观决策均有重要启示。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
We use generative AI to extract managerial expectations about their economic outlook from 120,000+ corporate conference call transcripts. The resulting AI Economy Score predicts GDP growth, production, and employment up to 10 quarters ahead, beyond existing measures like survey forecasts. Moreover, industry and firm-level measures provide valuable information about sector-specific and individual firm activities. A composite measure that integrates managerial expectations about firm, industry, and macroeconomic conditions further significantly improves the forecasting power and predictive horizon of national and sectoral growth. Our findings show managerial expectations offer unique insights into economic activity, with implications for both macroeconomic and microeconomic decision-making.
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