提出TimeBridge框架,区分处理时间序列的短期非平稳与长期协整关系。
TimeBridge: Non-Stationarity Matters for Long-term Time Series Forecasting
- 分段输入序列,用集成注意力缓解短期非平稳性
- 通过协整注意力建模跨变量长期协整关系,提升预测精度
- 在金融数据上表现优异,适合长周期时序预测任务
非平稳性对多变量时间序列预测构成重大挑战,因其内在的短期波动与长期趋势可能导致虚假回归或掩盖关键的长期关系。现有方法或消除、或保留非平稳性,未能分别应对短期与长期建模的不同需求。消除非平稳性有助于避免虚假回归并捕捉局部依赖,而保留非平稳性则对揭示变量间的长期协整关系至关重要。本文提出TimeBridge框架,通过将输入序列分块,采用集成注意力机制抑制短期非平稳性以捕获各变量内部稳定依赖,同时利用协整注意力保留非平稳性以建模变量间长期协整关系。大量实验表明,TimeBridge在短中期和长期预测上均达到当前最优性能。尤其在沪深300与标普500指数的金融预测任务中表现突出,验证了其鲁棒性与有效性。代码已开源:https://github.com/Hank0626/TimeBridge。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Non-stationarity poses significant challenges for multivariate time series forecasting due to the inherent short-term fluctuations and long-term trends that can lead to spurious regressions or obscure essential long-term relationships. Most existing methods either eliminate or retain non-stationarity without adequately addressing its distinct impacts on short-term and long-term modeling. Eliminating non-stationarity is essential for avoiding spurious regressions and capturing local dependencies in short-term modeling, while preserving it is crucial for revealing long-term cointegration across variates. In this paper, we propose TimeBridge, a novel framework designed to bridge the gap between non-stationarity and dependency modeling in long-term time series forecasting. By segmenting input series into smaller patches, TimeBridge applies Integrated Attention to mitigate short-term non-stationarity and capture stable dependencies within each variate, while Cointegrated Attention preserves non-stationarity to model long-term cointegration across variates. Extensive experiments show that TimeBridge consistently achieves state-of-the-art performance in both short-term and long-term forecasting. Additionally, TimeBridge demonstrates exceptional performance in financial forecasting on the CSI 500 and S&P 500 indices, further validating its robustness and effectiveness. Code is available at https://github.com/Hank0626/TimeBridge.
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