统一时间序列预测的长上下文Transformer,支持多变量与外生变量输入。
Timer-XL: Long-Context Transformers for Unified Time Series Forecasting
- 用多变量下一个标记预测统一建模各类时序任务
- 在多个基准上达到最优零样本性能,无需微调
- 适合需要通用时序建模能力的研究者与工业应用
我们提出Timer-XL,一种用于统一时间序列预测的因果Transformer。为统一预测多维时间序列,将主流的一维标记序列的下一个标记预测推广至多变量下一个标记预测,将各类预测任务建模为长上下文预测问题。采用仅解码器的Transformer架构,捕捉不同长度上下文中的因果依赖关系,可对非平稳单变量序列、具有复杂动态与相关性的多变量序列以及包含外生变量的协变量上下文进行预测。技术上,提出通用的TimeAttention机制,以捕捉扁平化时间序列标记(补丁)的细粒度内部与跨序列依赖,并通过巧妙的位置嵌入强化时间因果性与变量等价性。基于大规模预训练,Timer-XL在多个特定任务基准上实现最先进性能,且在零样本条件下也表现卓越,展现出作为预训练时序模型的潜力。代码已开源:https://github.com/thuml/Timer-XL。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
We present Timer-XL, a causal Transformer for unified time series forecasting. To uniformly predict multidimensional time series, we generalize next token prediction, predominantly adopted for 1D token sequences, to multivariate next token prediction. The paradigm formulates various forecasting tasks as a long-context prediction problem. We opt for decoder-only Transformers that capture causal dependencies from varying-length contexts for unified forecasting, making predictions on non-stationary univariate time series, multivariate series with complicated dynamics and correlations, as well as covariate-informed contexts that include exogenous variables. Technically, we propose a universal TimeAttention to capture fine-grained intra- and inter-series dependencies of flattened time series tokens (patches), which is further enhanced by deft position embedding for temporal causality and variable equivalence. Timer-XL achieves state-of-the-art performance across task-specific forecasting benchmarks through a unified approach. Based on large-scale pre-training, Timer-XL achieves state-of-the-art zero-shot performance, making it a promising architecture for pre-trained time series models. Code is available at this repository: https://github.com/thuml/Timer-XL.
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