研究厄尔尼诺与大西洋多年代际振荡对大西洋飓风的影响
El Nino Southern Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Impact on Hurricanes North Atlantic Basin
- 结合观测数据与气候指数，分析海温与大气环流对飓风的调控机制
- 过去十年海温升高使飓风强度增强，暖相位大西洋振荡期飓风频发
- 拉尼娜或中性状态下登陆飓风更多，厄尔尼诺则抑制登陆频率
热带气旋（包括飓风和台风）造成重大财产损失并导致人员伤亡，因此理解极端热带气旋的驱动因素至关重要。厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）通过对流层涡度、风切变和大气环流影响热带气旋生成。除大气变化外，海洋通过海表温度（SST）和深层海水热含量影响活动。这些大西洋海表温度决定了大西洋多年代际振荡（AMO），反映大西洋海温的年代际变化。本研究聚焦于ENSO、AMO及海表温度对北大西洋盆地飓风强度与频率的影响。近年来，AMO和海温异常上升速度令人担忧，但其动态如何影响未来飓风行为尚不明确。研究采用1950至2023年的观测气旋路径数据、海洋尼诺指数（ONI）以及美国国家海洋和大气管理局的扩展重建海温第5版（ERSST）。结果显示，过去十年海温升高表明飓风强度增强，而大西洋振荡暖相位时期对应更高的飓风频率。同时，拉尼娜或ENSO中性状态下的登陆飓风频率更高，而厄尔尼诺则降低登陆飓风频率。这些关系表明，随着季节性预测中ENSO和海温预报能力提升，季节性飓风预测有望改善。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Tropical cyclones (TCs), including hurricanes and typhoons, cause significant property damage and result in fatalities, making it crucial to understand the factors driving extreme TCs. The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences TC formation through tropospheric vorticity, wind shear, and atmospheric circulations. Apart from atmospheric changes, oceans influence activity through sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and deep ocean heat content. These Atlantic SSTs determine the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), which indicates SST variability in the Atlantic. This research focuses on ENSO, AMO, and SSTs impact on the strength and frequency of TCs in the North Atlantic Basin. AMO and SST anomalies are increasing at an alarming rate, but it remains unclear how their dynamics will influence future TC behavior. I used observational cyclone track data from 1950 to 2023, the Oceanic Nino Index (ONI), and NOAAs Extended Reconstructed SST V5 (ERSST). I found that Increasing SSTs over the past decade indicate stronger TCs, while warm phase AMO periods correspond with higher TC frequency. Meanwhile, a greater frequency of landfalling TCs can be attributed to La Nina or ENSO-neutral, with El Nino decreasing the frequency of landfalling TCs. Such relationships suggest that as the seasonal predictability of ENSO and SSTs improve, seasonal TC forecasts may improve.
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