arXiv:2410.05440cs.LG2024-10ICLR被引 55

LLM看时间序列异常,图像比文本更有效,但难搞定真实复杂异常。

Can LLMs Understand Time Series Anomalies?

  • 将时间序列转为图像输入,提升LLM理解能力
  • 零样本/少样本下仅能识别简单异常,复杂异常无效
  • 不同LLM表现差异大,推理提示无明显帮助

大型语言模型(LLMs)在时间序列预测中广受欢迎,但在异常检测方面的潜力仍待探索。本研究探讨了LLMs在零样本和少样本场景下理解与检测时间序列异常的能力。基于时间序列预测研究中的猜想,我们提出了关于LLMs能力的关键假设,并设计严谨实验逐一验证。研究发现:(1)LLMs对时间序列的理解在图像形式下优于文本形式;(2)提示其进行显式推理并未提升性能;(3)其理解能力并非源于重复偏差或算术能力;(4)不同模型在时间序列分析中的表现差异显著。本研究首次全面分析了现代LLMs在时间序列异常检测中的能力。结果表明,尽管可识别简单异常,尚无证据显示其能理解真实世界中更微妙的异常。许多基于推理能力的常见假设并不成立。所有合成数据生成器、最终提示及评估脚本均已开源至https://github.com/rose-stl-lab/anomllm。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Large Language Models (LLMs) have gained popularity in time series forecasting, but their potential for anomaly detection remains largely unexplored. Our study investigates whether LLMs can understand and detect anomalies in time series data, focusing on zero-shot and few-shot scenarios. Inspired by conjectures about LLMs' behavior from time series forecasting research, we formulate key hypotheses about LLMs' capabilities in time series anomaly detection. We design and conduct principled experiments to test each of these hypotheses. Our investigation reveals several surprising findings about LLMs for time series: (1) LLMs understand time series better as images rather than as text, (2) LLMs do not demonstrate enhanced performance when prompted to engage in explicit reasoning about time series analysis. (3) Contrary to common beliefs, LLMs' understanding of time series does not stem from their repetition biases or arithmetic abilities. (4) LLMs' behaviors and performance in time series analysis vary significantly across different models. This study provides the first comprehensive analysis of contemporary LLM capabilities in time series anomaly detection. Our results suggest that while LLMs can understand trivial time series anomalies, we have no evidence that they can understand more subtle real-world anomalies. Many common conjectures based on their reasoning capabilities do not hold. All synthetic dataset generators, final prompts, and evaluation scripts have been made available in https://github.com/rose-stl-lab/anomllm.

时间序列异常检测LLM图像输入

Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。