arXiv:2410.05444cs.LGstat.ME2024-10被引 7

在线高斯过程结合置信预测,实现可靠不确定性量化。

Online scalable Gaussian processes with conformal prediction for guaranteed coverage

  • 将高斯过程与置信预测结合,提升在线学习的不确定性可靠性。
  • 自适应调整阈值,确保长期预测覆盖率不低于设定目标。
  • 适合机器人、医疗等对安全要求高的实时系统应用。

高斯过程(GP)是一种广泛用于机器人、医疗、监控等安全关键场景中不确定性量化(UQ)的贝叶斯非参数方法。然而,其不确定性估计的有效性依赖于模型假设(如平滑性、周期性等)在实际中成立,而在线数据流中这些假设常被违反。为应对模型误设问题,本文提出将高斯过程与主流的置信预测(CP)相结合,后者是一种无需分布假设的后处理框架,仅在数据可交换性假设下即可保证预测集的覆盖概率。但在在线设置中,这一假设通常不成立,因需在真实标签暴露前生成预测集。为此,本文通过反馈信息(真实标签是否在预测集中)自适应调整关键阈值参数,以维持长期覆盖保证。数值实验表明,所提在线GP-CP方法在长期覆盖性能上优于现有方法。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

The Gaussian process (GP) is a Bayesian nonparametric paradigm that is widely adopted for uncertainty quantification (UQ) in a number of safety-critical applications, including robotics, healthcare, as well as surveillance. The consistency of the resulting uncertainty values however, hinges on the premise that the learning function conforms to the properties specified by the GP model, such as smoothness, periodicity and more, which may not be satisfied in practice, especially with data arriving on the fly. To combat against such model mis-specification, we propose to wed the GP with the prevailing conformal prediction (CP), a distribution-free post-processing framework that produces it prediction sets with a provably valid coverage under the sole assumption of data exchangeability. However, this assumption is usually violated in the online setting, where a prediction set is sought before revealing the true label. To ensure long-term coverage guarantee, we will adaptively set the key threshold parameter based on the feedback whether the true label falls inside the prediction set. Numerical results demonstrate the merits of the online GP-CP approach relative to existing alternatives in the long-term coverage performance.

高斯过程置信预测在线学习不确定性量化

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