让模型解释能指导如何降低预测不确定性,提升可信度。
Ensured: Explanations for Decreasing the Epistemic Uncertainty in Predictions
- 提出'确保性解释',指出哪些特征调整可降低不确定性
- 设计新评估指标'确保排序',平衡不确定性与置信度
- 适合需要可靠解释的医疗、金融等高风险场景
本文填补可解释人工智能中对认知不确定性解释的空白。现有方法多关注预测本身或简单包含不确定性,但缺乏减少内在不确定性的指导。为此,提出针对认知不确定性的新解释类型:确保性解释,明确指出可降低不确定性的特征修改;并分类不确定解释为反潜力、半潜力和超潜力,探索不同情景。强调认知不确定性是解释质量的关键维度,需在评估时兼顾预测概率与不确定性降低。引入新指标‘确保排序’,帮助用户识别最可靠的解释,权衡不确定性、置信度与竞争性解释。同时扩展校准解释方法,加入可视化工具,展示特征值变化对认知不确定性的影响,深化对模型行为的理解,提升在不确定预测场景下的可解释性与信任度。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
This paper addresses a significant gap in explainable AI: the necessity of interpreting epistemic uncertainty in model explanations. Although current methods mainly focus on explaining predictions, with some including uncertainty, they fail to provide guidance on how to reduce the inherent uncertainty in these predictions. To overcome this challenge, we introduce new types of explanations that specifically target epistemic uncertainty. These include ensured explanations, which highlight feature modifications that can reduce uncertainty, and categorisation of uncertain explanations counter-potential, semi-potential, and super-potential which explore alternative scenarios. Our work emphasises that epistemic uncertainty adds a crucial dimension to explanation quality, demanding evaluation based not only on prediction probability but also on uncertainty reduction. We introduce a new metric, ensured ranking, designed to help users identify the most reliable explanations by balancing trade-offs between uncertainty, probability, and competing alternative explanations. Furthermore, we extend the Calibrated Explanations method, incorporating tools that visualise how changes in feature values impact epistemic uncertainty. This enhancement provides deeper insights into model behaviour, promoting increased interpretability and appropriate trust in scenarios involving uncertain predictions.
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