arXiv:2410.05552stat.MLcs.LG2024-10被引 8

提出自适应实验设计,用少次策略更新逼近治疗效果估计最优精度。

Optimal Adaptive Experimental Design for Estimating Treatment Effect

  • 基于双重稳健方法构建在线学习框架,实现自适应实验设计。
  • 仅需2~3次策略更新,估计精度即趋近最优。
  • 适用于需要高效精准估计的临床试验等场景。

针对具有异质协变量的n个实验对象,在主动治疗与对照治疗两种选择下,本文解决了估计治疗效果的最优精度问题。提出一种逼近最优精度的自适应实验设计,给出了这一基础但未解决的问题的非渐近答案。首先,建立最小方差的理想最优估计器作为基准,证明自适应实验对实现近优估计至关重要;其次,将双重稳健思想融入序列实验设计,将最优估计问题转化为在线多臂赌博机问题,连接统计估计与赌博机学习领域。结合赌博机算法设计与自适应统计估计工具,提出通用低切换自适应实验框架,可作为多种自适应实验设计的通用范式。通过针对非独立同分布数据的新下界技术,证明所提实验的最优性。数值结果表明,仅需两或三次策略更新,估计精度即可接近最优。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Given n experiment subjects with potentially heterogeneous covariates and two possible treatments, namely active treatment and control, this paper addresses the fundamental question of determining the optimal accuracy in estimating the treatment effect. Furthermore, we propose an experimental design that approaches this optimal accuracy, giving a (non-asymptotic) answer to this fundamental yet still open question. The methodological contribution is listed as following. First, we establish an idealized optimal estimator with minimal variance as benchmark, and then demonstrate that adaptive experiment is necessary to achieve near-optimal estimation accuracy. Secondly, by incorporating the concept of doubly robust method into sequential experimental design, we frame the optimal estimation problem as an online bandit learning problem, bridging the two fields of statistical estimation and bandit learning. Using tools and ideas from both bandit algorithm design and adaptive statistical estimation, we propose a general low switching adaptive experiment framework, which could be a generic research paradigm for a wide range of adaptive experimental design. Through novel lower bound techniques for non-i.i.d. data, we demonstrate the optimality of our proposed experiment. Numerical result indicates that the estimation accuracy approaches optimal with as few as two or three policy updates.

实验设计自适应治疗效果在线学习

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