针对不规则时间序列,提出高效建模方法ACSSM,提升预测与插值精度。
Amortized Control of Continuous State Space Feynman-Kac Model for Irregular Time Series
- 用多边缘Doob变换构建条件连续动态系统,结合随机最优控制近似推断
- 在真实医疗、气候等数据集上实现分类、回归、插值与外推的优越性能
- 支持并行推理,适合大规模不规则时间序列建模任务
许多现实世界数据集(如医疗、气候、经济)常以不规则时间序列形式采集,给准确建模带来挑战。本文提出连续状态空间模型的渐进控制方法(ACSSM),用于对不规则离散观测的时间序列进行连续动力学建模。首先,我们引入多边缘Doob's $h$-变换,构造一个以不规则观测为条件的连续动力系统。随后,基于变分推断和紧致证据下界(ELBO),利用随机最优控制(SOC)理论近似难以计算的Doob变换,并模拟条件动态过程。为提高训练与推理效率,ACSSM采用辅助变量灵活参数化潜在动态,实现渐进控制。此外,该方法融合无仿真潜在动态框架与基于Transformer的数据同化方案,支持潜在状态的并行推断及ELBO计算。在多个真实世界数据集上的实证评估表明,ACSSM在分类、回归、插值与外推任务中表现优异,同时保持计算高效。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Many real-world datasets, such as healthcare, climate, and economics, are often collected as irregular time series, which poses challenges for accurate modeling. In this paper, we propose the Amortized Control of continuous State Space Model (ACSSM) for continuous dynamical modeling of time series for irregular and discrete observations. We first present a multi-marginal Doob's $h$-transform to construct a continuous dynamical system conditioned on these irregular observations. Following this, we introduce a variational inference algorithm with a tight evidence lower bound (ELBO), leveraging stochastic optimal control (SOC) theory to approximate the intractable Doob's $h$-transform and simulate the conditioned dynamics. To improve efficiency and scalability during both training and inference, ACSSM leverages auxiliary variable to flexibly parameterize the latent dynamics and amortized control. Additionally, it incorporates a simulation-free latent dynamics framework and a transformer-based data assimilation scheme, facilitating parallel inference of the latent states and ELBO computation. Through empirical evaluations across a variety of real-world datasets, ACSSM demonstrates superior performance in tasks such as classification, regression, interpolation, and extrapolation, while maintaining computational efficiency.
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