arXiv:2410.05805cs.CVcs.AI2024-10ICLR被引 10

无需配对数据,用无监督方法消除降水预报的模糊问题

PostCast: Generalizable Postprocessing for Precipitation Nowcasting via Unsupervised Blurriness Modeling

  • 将模糊视为可估计的核函数,用预训练扩散模型去模糊
  • 在7个雷达数据集上显著提升高时效预报精度
  • 适合需要快速适配新数据集的实时气象预报场景

降水临近预报在经济社会领域至关重要,尤其在强对流天气预警中。尽管深度学习方法已能捕捉时空相关性,但预报时效越长,预测结果越模糊,影响极端降水的准确预测。现有生成方法需预先准备模糊预测与真实值的成对数据,训练复杂且泛化能力受限。本文将预报模糊视为作用于预测结果的模糊核,提出一种无监督后处理方法,无需成对训练数据即可消除模糊。具体地,利用模糊预测引导预训练的无条件去噪扩散模型(DDPM),生成高保真预测。引入零样本模糊核估计机制和自适应去噪引导策略,使模型可适配不同数据集和预报时效的模糊模式。在7个降水雷达数据集上进行大量实验,验证了方法的泛化性和优越性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Precipitation nowcasting plays a pivotal role in socioeconomic sectors, especially in severe convective weather warnings. Although notable progress has been achieved by approaches mining the spatiotemporal correlations with deep learning, these methods still suffer severe blurriness as the lead time increases, which hampers accurate predictions for extreme precipitation. To alleviate blurriness, researchers explore generative methods conditioned on blurry predictions. However, the pairs of blurry predictions and corresponding ground truth need to be generated in advance, making the training pipeline cumbersome and limiting the generality of generative models within blur modes that appear in training data. By rethinking the blurriness in precipitation nowcasting as a blur kernel acting on predictions, we propose an unsupervised postprocessing method to eliminate the blurriness without the requirement of training with the pairs of blurry predictions and corresponding ground truth. Specifically, we utilize blurry predictions to guide the generation process of a pre-trained unconditional denoising diffusion probabilistic model (DDPM) to obtain high-fidelity predictions with eliminated blurriness. A zero-shot blur kernel estimation mechanism and an auto-scale denoise guidance strategy are introduced to adapt the unconditional DDPM to any blurriness modes varying from datasets and lead times in precipitation nowcasting. Extensive experiments are conducted on 7 precipitation radar datasets, demonstrating the generality and superiority of our method.

降水预报扩散模型无监督学习后处理

Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。