轻量级方法精准预测行人轨迹及不确定性,助力自动驾驶安全决策。
Reliable Probabilistic Human Trajectory Prediction for Autonomous Applications
- 结合LSTM与混合密度网络,输出概率分布与置信度
- 在低功耗平台运行,满足实时性与资源效率要求
- 强调可靠性与锐度评估,适合真实场景部署
自动驾驶系统需可靠、准确、快速、资源高效、可扩展且低延迟地预测周围物体的未来位置与运动,以实现安全的人机交互。同时,还需掌握预测结果的不确定性,用于风险评估和路径规划。本文提出一种轻量级方法,结合长短期记忆网络与混合密度网络,能够预测概率分布并估计位置不确定性置信度,支持后续风险管理工作,并可在低功耗嵌入式平台上运行。我们讨论了自动驾驶中行人轨迹预测的关键需求,并基于多个交通相关数据集验证了该方法性能。此外,阐明了可靠性与锐度指标的重要性,这些指标对确保模型预测与不确定性评估的正确性与鲁棒性至关重要。此前这些评估未受足够重视,实属不应。本方法专注于真实应用落地。预测不确定性与模型可靠性是自主系统实际应用的核心。代码与框架已开源:https://github.com/kav-institute/mdn_trajectory_forecasting。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Autonomous systems, like vehicles or robots, require reliable, accurate, fast, resource-efficient, scalable, and low-latency trajectory predictions to get initial knowledge about future locations and movements of surrounding objects for safe human-machine interaction. Furthermore, they need to know the uncertainty of the predictions for risk assessment to provide safe path planning. This paper presents a lightweight method to address these requirements, combining Long Short-Term Memory and Mixture Density Networks. Our method predicts probability distributions, including confidence level estimations for positional uncertainty to support subsequent risk management applications and runs on a low-power embedded platform. We discuss essential requirements for human trajectory prediction in autonomous vehicle applications and demonstrate our method's performance using multiple traffic-related datasets. Furthermore, we explain reliability and sharpness metrics and show how important they are to guarantee the correctness and robustness of a model's predictions and uncertainty assessments. These essential evaluations have so far received little attention for no good reason. Our approach focuses entirely on real-world applicability. Verifying prediction uncertainties and a model's reliability are central to autonomous real-world applications. Our framework and code are available at: https://github.com/kav-institute/mdn_trajectory_forecasting.
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