通过单父节点解码,从时间数据中同时学习因果变量与因果图
Causal Representation Learning in Temporal Data via Single-Parent Decoding
- 假设每个观测变量仅受一个潜在变量影响,提升因果结构可识别性
- 提出可微方法CDSD,联合学习潜在变量与因果图,理论可识别
- 在气候数据上验证有效,适合科学领域中的高维时序分析
科学研究常需理解系统中高层变量的因果结构。例如,气候学家研究厄尔尼诺等现象如何影响全球远端的气候过程。然而,科学家通常只能获取低层测量数据,如地理分布的温度读数。需要从中学习映射到因果相关的潜在变量(如厄尔尼诺的高层表征)及其上的因果模型。该任务称为因果表示学习,仅靠观测数据高度不确定,需额外约束以消除歧义。本文考虑具有稀疏性假设的时间模型——单父节点解码:每个观测变量仅受一个潜在变量影响。这一假设在许多科学应用中合理,如从网格化气候数据中提取区域,或从神经活动数据中捕捉脑区。我们证明了该模型的可识别性,并提出可微方法Causal Discovery with Single-parent Decoding (CDSD),能同时学习潜在变量和其间的因果图。通过模拟数据验证理论结果,并在真实气候数据上展示方法实用性。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Scientific research often seeks to understand the causal structure underlying high-level variables in a system. For example, climate scientists study how phenomena, such as El Niño, affect other climate processes at remote locations across the globe. However, scientists typically collect low-level measurements, such as geographically distributed temperature readings. From these, one needs to learn both a mapping to causally-relevant latent variables, such as a high-level representation of the El Niño phenomenon and other processes, as well as the causal model over them. The challenge is that this task, called causal representation learning, is highly underdetermined from observational data alone, requiring other constraints during learning to resolve the indeterminacies. In this work, we consider a temporal model with a sparsity assumption, namely single-parent decoding: each observed low-level variable is only affected by a single latent variable. Such an assumption is reasonable in many scientific applications that require finding groups of low-level variables, such as extracting regions from geographically gridded measurement data in climate research or capturing brain regions from neural activity data. We demonstrate the identifiability of the resulting model and propose a differentiable method, Causal Discovery with Single-parent Decoding (CDSD), that simultaneously learns the underlying latents and a causal graph over them. We assess the validity of our theoretical results using simulated data and showcase the practical validity of our method in an application to real-world data from the climate science field.
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