用图神经网络识别企业间串通行为,跨市场零样本检测更高效。
Collusion Detection with Graph Neural Networks
- 基于图神经网络建模企业间关系,捕捉串通隐蔽模式。
- 在日、美、瑞、意、巴等国数据上,GNN检测准确率优于传统神经网络。
- 支持无训练数据的跨市场零样本预测,适合反垄断监管场景。
串通是企业秘密合谋实施欺诈行为的复杂现象。本文提出一种创新方法,利用神经网络(NN)与图神经网络(GNN)检测不同国家市场的串通模式。由于串通本身具有网络结构特征,GNN在该任务中表现尤为出色。研究分两阶段:第一阶段在日本、美国、瑞士两个区域、意大利和巴西的独立市场数据集上训练模型,聚焦单市场串通预测;第二阶段通过零样本学习与迁移学习,使模型具备在无训练数据的市场中检测串通的能力,并引入分布外(OOD)泛化评估其在其他国家和地区的性能。实证表明,GNN在识别复杂串通模式方面显著优于传统神经网络。本研究为防范串通行为、优化检测方法提供新思路,推动神经网络在经济领域的应用,助力提升市场公平与经济福祉。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Collusion is a complex phenomenon in which companies secretly collaborate to engage in fraudulent practices. This paper presents an innovative methodology for detecting and predicting collusion patterns in different national markets using neural networks (NNs) and graph neural networks (GNNs). GNNs are particularly well suited to this task because they can exploit the inherent network structures present in collusion and many other economic problems. Our approach consists of two phases: In Phase I, we develop and train models on individual market datasets from Japan, the United States, two regions in Switzerland, Italy, and Brazil, focusing on predicting collusion in single markets. In Phase II, we extend the models' applicability through zero-shot learning, employing a transfer learning approach that can detect collusion in markets in which training data is unavailable. This phase also incorporates out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization to evaluate the models' performance on unseen datasets from other countries and regions. In our empirical study, we show that GNNs outperform NNs in detecting complex collusive patterns. This research contributes to the ongoing discourse on preventing collusion and optimizing detection methodologies, providing valuable guidance on the use of NNs and GNNs in economic applications to enhance market fairness and economic welfare.
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