用贝叶斯方法优化地震监测网络布局,提升定位精度。
Analysis and Optimization of Seismic Monitoring Networks with Bayesian Optimal Experiment Design
- 基于贝叶斯最优实验设计,通过信息增益最大化确定传感器位置与类型。
- 在区域尺度上,合理配置传感器可显著降低地震事件定位不确定性。
- 适用于地震监测系统设计,尤其适合多模态传感器融合场景。
监测网络正日益整合来自多种传感器的多样化数据。贝叶斯最优实验设计(Bayesian OED)旨在识别能最有效减少不确定性的数据、传感器配置或实验方案,从而提升监测网络性能。信息论将实验选择或传感器部署建模为最大化关于感兴趣量的期望信息增益(EIG)的优化问题。针对地震-声学监测,我们利用贝叶斯OED优化传感器网络,通过选择传感器位置、类型和精度来增强对地震源的识别与定位能力。本文构建了用于区域尺度地震事件定位的贝叶斯OED框架,包含四个要素:1)描述传感器网络检测与走时数据分布的似然函数;2)结合先验与似然的贝叶斯求解器,推断地震事件的后验分布;3)计算假设先验事件数据集上地震事件的EIG算法;4)寻找使EIG最大化的传感器网络优化器。在此基础上,研究了传感器保真度与地球模型不确定性之间的权衡、传感器类型、数量与位置对不确定性的影响,以及先验模型与约束条件对传感器部署的影响。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Monitoring networks increasingly aim to assimilate data from a large number of diverse sensors covering many sensing modalities. Bayesian optimal experimental design (OED) seeks to identify data, sensor configurations, or experiments which can optimally reduce uncertainty and hence increase the performance of a monitoring network. Information theory guides OED by formulating the choice of experiment or sensor placement as an optimization problem that maximizes the expected information gain (EIG) about quantities of interest given prior knowledge and models of expected observation data. Therefore, within the context of seismo-acoustic monitoring, we can use Bayesian OED to configure sensor networks by choosing sensor locations, types, and fidelity in order to improve our ability to identify and locate seismic sources. In this work, we develop the framework necessary to use Bayesian OED to optimize a sensor network's ability to locate seismic events from arrival time data of detected seismic phases at the regional-scale. Bayesian OED requires four elements: 1) A likelihood function that describes the distribution of detection and travel time data from the sensor network, 2) A Bayesian solver that uses a prior and likelihood to identify the posterior distribution of seismic events given the data, 3) An algorithm to compute EIG about seismic events over a dataset of hypothetical prior events, 4) An optimizer that finds a sensor network which maximizes EIG. Once we have developed this framework, we explore many relevant questions to monitoring such as: how to trade off sensor fidelity and earth model uncertainty; how sensor types, number, and locations influence uncertainty; and how prior models and constraints influence sensor placement.
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