arXiv:2410.07216q-fin.STcs.AI2024-10中稿 · 2024 ACM Internati…被引 8

提出无需依赖下游任务的金融关系图评估方法,提升可解释性。

Evaluating Financial Relational Graphs: Interpretation Before Prediction

  • 构建动态股票关系图,基于SPNews数据集捕捉实时关联变化
  • 评估结果表明新方法能有效区分不同图结构,解释力更强
  • 适用于希望理解市场关系而非仅预测的量化研究者

准确且稳健的股票趋势预测是重要而具有挑战性的任务,因股价受多重因素影响。基于图神经网络的方法通过构建反映股票内部因素及相互关系的股票关系图,在该领域取得了显著进展。然而,由于缺乏合适数据集,多数方法依赖预设因素构建静态关系图,难以捕捉股票关系的动态变化。此外,这些方法中关系图的评估常与下游神经网络模型的表现绑定,导致评估混乱且不精确。为解决上述问题,我们提出了SPNews数据集,基于标普500指数成分股收集,以支持动态关系图的构建。同时,我们提出一套独立于下游任务的金融关系图评估方法,通过关系图解释历史金融现象来评估其有效性,确保图在捕捉相关金融关系方面的可靠性。实验结果表明,该评估方法能有效区分不同金融关系图,相较传统方法具有更强的可解释性。我们已将源代码公开于GitHub,以促进可复现性与进一步研究。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Accurate and robust stock trend forecasting has been a crucial and challenging task, as stock price changes are influenced by multiple factors. Graph neural network-based methods have recently achieved remarkable success in this domain by constructing stock relationship graphs that reflect internal factors and relationships between stocks. However, most of these methods rely on predefined factors to construct static stock relationship graphs due to the lack of suitable datasets, failing to capture the dynamic changes in stock relationships. Moreover, the evaluation of relationship graphs in these methods is often tied to the performance of neural network models on downstream tasks, leading to confusion and imprecision. To address these issues, we introduce the SPNews dataset, collected based on S\&P 500 Index stocks, to facilitate the construction of dynamic relationship graphs. Furthermore, we propose a novel set of financial relationship graph evaluation methods that are independent of downstream tasks. By using the relationship graph to explain historical financial phenomena, we assess its validity before constructing a graph neural network, ensuring the graph's effectiveness in capturing relevant financial relationships. Experimental results demonstrate that our evaluation methods can effectively differentiate between various financial relationship graphs, yielding more interpretable results compared to traditional approaches. We make our source code publicly available on GitHub to promote reproducibility and further research in this area.

金融图神经网络动态关系图可解释性

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