arXiv:2410.07368q-bio.QMcs.LG2024-10被引 6

用少量数据预测生态系长期行为,靠元学习提升精度。

Learning to learn ecosystems from limited data -- a meta-learning approach

  • 用元学习+时滞神经网络,从少数据中学会预测生态动态
  • 仅需原方法5~7倍少的数据,准确率与鲁棒性显著提升
  • 适合数据稀缺的生态建模与长期预测任务

在状态估计和预测等生态系数据驱动方法中,观测数据稀少是核心挑战。现代机器学习如深度学习或储层计算通常需要大量数据。本文利用典型非生态非线性动力系统的合成数据,构建基于时滞前馈神经网络的元学习框架,用于预测生态系的长期行为(以吸引子表征)。结果表明,该框架能以有限数据准确重构生态系的“动力气候”。通过哈廷斯-鲍威尔模型、三物种食物链和洛特卡-沃尔泰拉系统三个生态学基准模型验证,相比仅使用生态数据训练的机器学习方法,本框架在仅使用其5~7倍少的训练数据下,仍实现更高准确率与更强鲁棒性。文中还探讨了影响预测性能的若干关键问题。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

A fundamental challenge in developing data-driven approaches to ecological systems for tasks such as state estimation and prediction is the paucity of the observational or measurement data. For example, modern machine-learning techniques such as deep learning or reservoir computing typically require a large quantity of data. Leveraging synthetic data from paradigmatic nonlinear but non-ecological dynamical systems, we develop a meta-learning framework with time-delayed feedforward neural networks to predict the long-term behaviors of ecological systems as characterized by their attractors. We show that the framework is capable of accurately reconstructing the ``dynamical climate'' of the ecological system with limited data. Three benchmark population models in ecology, namely the Hastings-Powell model, a three-species food chain, and the Lotka-Volterra system, are used to demonstrate the performance of the meta-learning based prediction framework. In all cases, enhanced accuracy and robustness are achieved using five to seven times less training data as compared with the corresponding machine-learning method trained solely from the ecosystem data. A number of issues affecting the prediction performance are addressed.

元学习生态建模少样本学习动力系统

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