用深度学习提升飞机燃油估算泛化能力,让模型能预测未见机型。
On the Generalization Properties of Deep Learning for Aircraft Fuel Flow Estimation Models
- 融合神经网络与领域泛化技术,增强跨机型预测鲁棒性。
- 对未知机型误差在2%至10%间,已知机型误差低于1%。
- 适合航空设计、环保评估等需要泛化能力的场景。
准确估算飞机燃油消耗对评估新航程、设计下一代飞机及监测当前航空环境影响至关重要。本文研究深度学习模型在预测燃油消耗时的泛化能力,重点关注训练数据中无对应机型时的表现。提出一种结合神经网络与领域泛化技术的新方法,以提升多种飞机类型的鲁棒性与可靠性。采用包含101种不同飞机型号的综合数据集,分为训练集与泛化集,每种机型含1,000次飞行数据。基于飞机数据基础(BADA)模型生成燃油流估计值,引入伪距离度量评估机型相似性,并探索多种采样策略优化数据稀疏区域的性能。结果表明,向飞机与发动机参数中加入噪声可提升模型对未见机型的泛化能力。对于与已有机型相近的未知机型,模型平均绝对百分比误差介于2%至10%之间;而对于训练集中已知机型,误差低于1%。本研究展示了将领域知识与先进机器学习结合,在构建可扩展、高精度且强泛化的燃油流估算模型方面的潜力。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Accurately estimating aircraft fuel flow is essential for evaluating new procedures, designing next-generation aircraft, and monitoring the environmental impact of current aviation practices. This paper investigates the generalization capabilities of deep learning models in predicting fuel consumption, focusing particularly on their performance for aircraft types absent from the training data. We propose a novel methodology that integrates neural network architectures with domain generalization techniques to enhance robustness and reliability across a wide range of aircraft. A comprehensive dataset containing 101 different aircraft types, separated into training and generalization sets, with each aircraft type set containing 1,000 flights. We employed the base of aircraft data (BADA) model for fuel flow estimates, introduced a pseudo-distance metric to assess aircraft type similarity, and explored various sampling strategies to optimize model performance in data-sparse regions. Our results reveal that for previously unseen aircraft types, the introduction of noise into aircraft and engine parameters improved model generalization. The model is able to generalize with acceptable mean absolute percentage error between 2\% and 10\% for aircraft close to existing aircraft, while performance is below 1\% error for known aircraft in the training set. This study highlights the potential of combining domain-specific insights with advanced machine learning techniques to develop scalable, accurate, and generalizable fuel flow estimation models.
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