根据决策需求动态选模型,提升人力分配效果
Decision-Aware Predictive Model Selection for Workforce Allocation
- 用机器学习预测工人行为,再通过优化决定谁做啥
- 新方法比传统做法提升分配效率,实测有效
- 适合需要精准调度的保险、客服等场景
许多组织依赖人工决策者在信息有限的情况下做出主观判断。尽管工人常被视为可互换,但具体个体因决策方式和风险偏好不同,会对结果产生显著影响。本文提出一种新型框架,利用机器学习预测工人行为,并通过整数优化实现任务分配。与传统将预测结果视为静态输入的方法不同,本方法在优化过程中动态选择最适配的预测模型。我们结合某汽车保险公司的真实数据,采用三种技术预测工人行为,验证了该决策感知框架的有效性。结果表明,该方法优于传统策略,能提供上下文敏感且数据驱动的人力管理方案。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Many organizations depend on human decision-makers to make subjective decisions, especially in settings where information is scarce. Although workers are often viewed as interchangeable, the specific individual assigned to a task can significantly impact outcomes due to their unique decision-making processes and risk tolerance. In this paper, we introduce a novel framework that utilizes machine learning to predict worker behavior and employs integer optimization to strategically assign workers to tasks. Unlike traditional methods that treat machine learning predictions as static inputs for optimization, in our approach, the optimal predictive model used to represent a worker's behavior is determined by how that worker is allocated within the optimization process. We present a decision-aware optimization framework that integrates predictive model selection with worker allocation. Collaborating with an auto-insurance provider and using real-world data, we evaluate the effectiveness of our proposed method by applying three different techniques to predict worker behavior. Our findings show the proposed decision-aware framework outperforms traditional methods and offers context-sensitive and data-responsive strategies for workforce management.
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