arXiv:2410.08226physics.geo-phcs.LG2024-10中稿 · Transactions on Ma…被引 6

构建地震预测新基准,揭示现有神经点过程模型仍不如经典模型。

EarthquakeNPP: A Benchmark for Earthquake Forecasting with Neural Point Processes

  • 构建包含加州1971-2021年地震数据的标准化基准平台
  • 五种神经点过程模型在对数似然和生成评估中均未超越ETAS模型
  • 为地震学与机器学习交叉研究提供可复现的协作平台

几十年来,经典点过程模型(如流行型余震序列模型,ETAS)广泛用于地震发生时间与位置的预测。近年来,神经点过程(NPPs)展现出更强灵活性和潜在改进。然而,现有NPP基准存在数据泄露问题,且遗漏该地区最大地震序列,无法反映当前地震学界的挑战。同时,早期基准也未将NPP与地震学中主流预测模型进行比较。为此,我们提出EarthquakeNPP:一个整合全球公开地震目录、ETAS模型及地震学界评估协议的基准平台。数据覆盖加州多个大小区域,时间跨度为1971至2021年,包含多种数据生成方法。基于对数似然和生成评估等地震学通用指标的基准实验表明,五种测试的NPP模型均未能超越ETAS。结果提示当前NPP实现尚不适合实际地震预测。但EarthquakeNPP为地震学与机器学习领域合作提供了可复现的共同基础。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

For decades, classical point process models, such as the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model, have been widely used for forecasting the event times and locations of earthquakes. Recent advances have led to Neural Point Processes (NPPs), which promise greater flexibility and improvements over such classical models. However, the currently-used benchmark for NPPs does not represent an up-to-date challenge in the seismological community, since it contains data leakage and omits the largest earthquake sequence from the region. Additionally, initial earthquake forecasting benchmarks fail to compare NPPs with state-of-the-art forecasting models commonly used in seismology. To address these gaps, we introduce EarthquakeNPP: a benchmarking platform that curates and standardizes existing public resources: globally available earthquake catalogs, the ETAS model, and evaluation protocols from the seismology community. The datasets cover a range of small to large target regions within California, dating from 1971 to 2021, and include different methodologies for dataset generation. Benchmarking experiments, using both log-likelihood and generative evaluation metrics widely recognised in seismology, show that none of the five NPPs tested outperform ETAS. These findings suggest that current NPP implementations are not yet suitable for practical earthquake forecasting. Nonetheless, EarthquakeNPP provides a platform to foster future collaboration between the seismology and machine learning communities.

地震预测神经点过程基准测试

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