arXiv:2410.08783cs.LGcs.CY2024-10被引 4

让专家判断算法无法区分的案例,提升预测准确性。

Integrating Expert Judgment and Algorithmic Decision Making: An Indistinguishability Framework

  • 利用专家对算法无法区分样本的判断,补充算法缺失信息。
  • 该方法可证明性提升任意算法性能,且量化改进幅度。
  • 适合需人机协同决策的医疗、风控等高价值场景。

我们提出一种新型人机协作框架,用于预测与决策任务。该方法利用人类判断来区分算法无法区分的输入(即‘看起来一样’的数据)。这一框架明确了人机协作的核心问题:专家常依赖算法训练数据未编码的‘附加信息’。算法不可区分性为评估专家是否使用此类‘旁路信息’提供了自然测试,并提供了一种简洁而严谨的方法,选择性地将人类反馈融入算法预测。我们证明该方法能保证提升任何可行算法的性能,并精确量化其改进效果。在急诊分诊的案例研究中,尽管算法风险评分已接近医生水平,但证据显示医生判断包含算法无法复现的信息。这一发现催生了一系列利用人机互补优势的自然决策规则。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

We introduce a novel framework for human-AI collaboration in prediction and decision tasks. Our approach leverages human judgment to distinguish inputs which are algorithmically indistinguishable, or "look the same" to any feasible predictive algorithm. We argue that this framing clarifies the problem of human-AI collaboration in prediction and decision tasks, as experts often form judgments by drawing on information which is not encoded in an algorithm's training data. Algorithmic indistinguishability yields a natural test for assessing whether experts incorporate this kind of "side information", and further provides a simple but principled method for selectively incorporating human feedback into algorithmic predictions. We show that this method provably improves the performance of any feasible algorithmic predictor and precisely quantify this improvement. We demonstrate the utility of our framework in a case study of emergency room triage decisions, where we find that although algorithmic risk scores are highly competitive with physicians, there is strong evidence that physician judgments provide signal which could not be replicated by any predictive algorithm. This insight yields a range of natural decision rules which leverage the complementary strengths of human experts and predictive algorithms.

人机协同决策优化医疗AI

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