arXiv:2410.09550cs.CV2024-10被引 2

用扩散模型模拟船舶轨迹不确定性逐步消散过程,提升复杂海况预测精度。

DiffuTraj: A Stochastic Vessel Trajectory Prediction Approach via Guided Diffusion Process

  • 将轨迹预测建模为逆向去噪过程,逐步消除运动不确定性
  • 在多个基准数据集上优于现有方法,显著提升多模式轨迹生成能力
  • 适合需要高精度动态海事行为预测的系统开发者

海上船舶航行具有内在复杂性与不确定性,要求轨迹预测系统能捕捉未来运动状态的多模态特性。传统随机方法虽利用潜在变量表示多模态,但常忽略海上行为的复杂动态。本文提出新框架DiffuTraj,将轨迹预测视为运动模式不确定性的引导逆向扩散过程:通过逐步去除海域中的不确定性,勾勒出目标轨迹。具体而言,编码目标船历史状态、船-船交互及环境上下文作为生成引导;设计基于Transformer的条件去噪器以捕获时空依赖,使生成轨迹更贴合特定海事环境。在多个船舶轨迹预测基准上的实验表明,该方法具有显著优势。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Maritime vessel maneuvers, characterized by their inherent complexity and indeterminacy, requires vessel trajectory prediction system capable of modeling the multi-modality nature of future motion states. Conventional stochastic trajectory prediction methods utilize latent variables to represent the multi-modality of vessel motion, however, tends to overlook the complexity and dynamics inherent in maritime behavior. In contrast, we explicitly simulate the transition of vessel motion from uncertainty towards a state of certainty, effectively handling future indeterminacy in dynamic scenes. In this paper, we present a novel framework (\textit{DiffuTraj}) to conceptualize the trajectory prediction task as a guided reverse process of motion pattern uncertainty diffusion, in which we progressively remove uncertainty from maritime regions to delineate the intended trajectory. Specifically, we encode the previous states of the target vessel, vessel-vessel interactions, and the environment context as guiding factors for trajectory generation. Subsequently, we devise a transformer-based conditional denoiser to capture spatio-temporal dependencies, enabling the generation of trajectories better aligned for particular maritime environment. Comprehensive experiments on vessel trajectory prediction benchmarks demonstrate the superiority of our method.

轨迹预测扩散模型船舶航行多模态

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