arXiv:2410.09635cs.LGcs.AI2024-10中稿 · publication in ACM…被引 9

用反事实分析解释新生儿健康模型,帮助医生判断分娩风险。

Use of What-if Scenarios to Help Explain Artificial Intelligence Models for Neonatal Health

  • 通过生成对抗网络增强数据,提升小样本下模型预测能力
  • 平均F1得分0.784,优于XGBoost等主流模型
  • 仅需调整2-3个变量即可生成可操作的干预建议

早期发现分娩期风险可及时干预,预防脑瘫等不良结局。然而,当前缺乏支持临床决策的精准自动化系统。为此,我们提出人工智能建模与解释新生儿健康(AIMEN)框架,利用产妇、胎儿、产科及分娩期因素预测不良分娩结局,并提供可解释的推理依据。该框架能揭示输入变量变化如何影响预测结果,增强临床洞察力。为应对类别不平衡和样本量少的问题,采用条件表格式生成对抗网络(CTGAN)进行数据增强,包括生成合成数据、放松部分训练点的特征范围以探索略超出正常值的生理参数,以及基于轮廓系数筛选提高合成样本可分性。AIMEN采用全连接神经网络集成进行分类,在预测高危分娩任务中平均F1得分为0.784,优于XGBoost、TabNet、DANet和LightGBM等先进模型。此外,该模型生成的反事实解释平均仅需调整两到三个属性即可实现,具有实际临床可操作性。代码资源:https://github.com/ab9mamun/AIMEN。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Early detection of intrapartum risks enables timely interventions to prevent or mitigate adverse labor outcomes such as cerebral palsy. However, accurate automated systems to support clinical decision-making during delivery are currently lacking. To address this gap, we propose Artificial Intelligence for Modeling and Explaining Neonatal Health (AIMEN), a deep learning framework that predicts adverse labor outcomes from maternal, fetal, obstetrical, and intrapartum factors while providing interpretable reasoning behind its predictions. AIMEN reveals how specific modifications to input variables could alter predicted outcomes, enhancing clinical insight. To address class imbalance and limited sample size, AIMEN employs Conditional Tabular GAN (CTGAN) for data augmentation. This process includes synthetic data generation, and we investigate in detail properties such as relaxing feature bounds for a subset of training points to explore slightly out-of-range physiological values, and applying silhouette-score-based filtering to increase the separability of synthetic samples. AIMEN uses an ensemble of fully connected neural networks for classification and outperforms state-of-the-art models such as XGBoost, TabNet, DANet, and LightGBM, achieving an average F1 score of 0.784 in predicting high-risk deliveries. Moreover, AIMEN generates counterfactual explanations that identify actionable changes involving only two to three attributes on average. Resources: https://github.com/ab9mamun/AIMEN.

AI医疗可解释性分娩预测反事实

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