用多周期学习预测潮流速度,精度提升1.44%以上
A Tidal Current Speed Forecasting Model based on Multi-Periodicity Learning
- 将潮流数据转为二维张量,用卷积网络捕捉周期性变化
- 10步平均绝对误差达0.025,比基线低至少1.44%
- 适合需要高精度潮能预测的能源系统研究者
潮汐能是提高可再生能源渗透率的关键。电网中高比例潮汐能依赖于精准的潮流速度预测。现有物理模型因天体轨道周期影响难以准确建模。本文提出小波增强卷积网络,将一维潮流数据的内部周期与跨周期变化分别嵌入二维张量的行与列,利用卷积核处理序列的二维特征,并引入时频分析方法捕捉局部周期特性。同时,采用树状结构贝叶斯优化器调整超参数以提升稳定性。实验表明,该框架在10步预测中平均绝对误差为0.025,较其他基线至少降低1.44%;在人为添加周期波动的数据上,平均绝对百分比误差减少1.4%。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Tidal energy is one of the key components in increasing the penetration of renewable energy. High tidal energy penetration into the electrical grid depends on accurate tidal current speed forecasting. Model inaccuracies hinder forecast accuracy. Previous research primarily used physical models to forecast tidal current speed, yet tidal current variations influenced by the orbital periods of celestial bodies make accurate physical modeling challenging. Research on the multi-periodicity of tides is crucial for forecasting tidal current speed. We propose the Wavelet-Enhanced Convolutional Network to learn multi-periodicity. The framework embeds intra-period and inter-period variations of one-dimensional tidal current data into the rows and columns, respectively, of a two-dimensional tensor. Then, the two-dimensional variations of the sequence can be processed by convolutional kernels. We integrate a time-frequency analysis method into the framework to further address local periodic features. Additionally, to enhance the framework's stability, we optimize the framework's hyperparameters with the Tree-structured Parzen Estimator. The proposed framework captures multi-periodic dependencies in tidal current data. Numerical results show a 10-step average Mean Absolute Error of 0.025, with at least a 1.44% error reduction compared to other baselines. Further ablation studies show a 1.4% reduction in Mean Absolute Percentage Error on the data with artificially added periodic fluctuations.
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