arXiv:2410.10786cs.LGcs.AI2024-10被引 16

提出信息论框架统一评估预测不确定性,揭示不同场景下的适用条件。

On Information-Theoretic Measures of Predictive Uncertainty

  • 从模型与分布近似双重维度构建不确定性度量分类框架
  • 发现模型与数据分布需匹配,且外分布下认知不确定性失效
  • 适合需要可靠风险评估的高风险机器学习应用

可靠的预测不确定性估计对机器学习应用至关重要,尤其在高风险场景中。尽管其重要性显著,但目前尚无统一的量化方法。本文重新审视核心概念,提出一个信息论框架来分类预测不确定性度量。该框架基于两个因素:(I) 预测模型,(II) 真实预测分布的近似方式。通过分析所有组合,推导出一组包含已有和新引入的度量。我们在广泛任务上进行评估,识别出某些度量在特定条件下表现更优。结果表明:模型与分布内(ID)数据需匹配;认知不确定性在分布外(OOD)数据中存在局限;不同度量间的解耦程度在ID与OOD间差异显著。这些发现深化了对预测不确定性度量的理解,揭示其隐含假设与相互关系。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Reliable estimation of predictive uncertainty is crucial for machine learning applications, particularly in high-stakes scenarios where hedging against risks is essential. Despite its significance, there is no universal agreement on how to best quantify predictive uncertainty. In this work, we revisit core concepts to propose a framework for information-theoretic measures of predictive uncertainty. Our proposed framework categorizes predictive uncertainty measures according to two factors: (I) The predicting model (II) The approximation of the true predictive distribution. Examining all possible combinations of these two factors, we derive a set of predictive uncertainty measures that includes both known and newly introduced ones. We extensively evaluate these measures across a broad set of tasks, identifying conditions under which certain measures excel. Our findings show the importance of aligning the choice of uncertainty measure with the predicting model on in-distribution (ID) data, the limitations of epistemic uncertainty measures for out-of-distribution (OOD) data, and that the disentanglement between measures varies substantially between ID and OOD data. Together, these insights provide a more comprehensive understanding of predictive uncertainty measures, revealing their implicit assumptions and relationships.

不确定性估计信息论机器学习

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