arXiv:2410.11587cs.LG2024-10被引 5

用可解释神经网络提升基流识别精度,性能显著优于传统模型。

Baseflow identification via explainable AI with Kolmogorov-Arnold networks

  • 用柯尔莫哥洛夫-阿诺德网络替代传统水文定律,自动发现符号表达式。
  • 基流识别的NSE提升67%,RMSE降低30%,参数从3个减至2个。
  • 模型透明简洁,无需特殊工具,适合水文研究与实际应用。

水文模型常依赖不适用于所有场景的经验公式。本文提出用柯尔莫哥洛夫-阿诺德网络(KANs)替代这些公式,该类神经网络能自动识别符号表达式。以基流识别这一高度不确定的难题为例,KAN推导出的基流成分与干旱指数之间的函数关系,优于原始模型。在测试集上,其纳什效率(NSE)提升67%,均方根误差(RMSE)下降30%,克莱格-古普塔效率(KGE)提高24%。同时,参数数量从3个减少到2个。接着,利用美国本土378个流域的年均水量平衡数据,对水文方程进行优化。基于改进水量平衡的KAN模型,相较现有干旱指数模型,NSE最高提升105%;也优于基于原始水量平衡的KAN模型。尽管性能与树模型相近,但KAN兼具简洁性与可解释性,无需专用软件或算力。本案例聚焦干旱指数构建,但方法可推广至其他水文过程。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Hydrological models often involve constitutive laws that may not be optimal in every application. We propose to replace such laws with the Kolmogorov-Arnold networks (KANs), a class of neural networks designed to identify symbolic expressions. We demonstrate KAN's potential on the problem of baseflow identification, a notoriously challenging task plagued by significant uncertainty. KAN-derived functional dependencies of the baseflow components on the aridity index outperform their original counterparts. On a test set, they increase the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) by 67%, decrease the root mean squared error by 30%, and increase the Kling-Gupta efficiency by 24%. This superior performance is achieved while reducing the number of fitting parameters from three to two. Next, we use data from 378 catchments across the continental United States to refine the water-balance equation at the mean-annual scale. The KAN-derived equations based on the refined water balance outperform both the current aridity index model, with up to a 105% increase in NSE, and the KAN-derived equations based on the original water balance. While the performance of our model and tree-based machine learning methods is similar, KANs offer the advantage of simplicity and transparency and require no specific software or computational tools. This case study focuses on the aridity index formulation, but the approach is flexible and transferable to other hydrological processes.

水文建模可解释AIKAN

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