用最优传输方法评估时空预测误差,更贴近真实成本。
GeOT: A spatially explicit framework for evaluating spatio-temporal predictions
- 引入最优传输衡量预测误差的运输成本,考虑空间分布
- 在共享单车等数据上,空间成本显著降低而普通误差变化小
- 适合关注空间布局的模型评估与训练,如城市规划、交通预测
在跨时空预测中,误差的空间分布直接影响实际应用价值。例如,共享单车需求预测的误差会转化为调度成本。然而,现有地理人工智能常用点对点误差指标,忽略了空间异质性、自相关性和可调区域单元问题。本文提出基于最优传输(OT)的地理时空评估框架GeOT,通过量化预测误差的运输成本来评估模型性能。实验证明:1)预测误差的空间分布与真实世界成本密切相关;2)OT比现有指标更准确捕捉空间成本;3)OT提升不同空间和时间尺度间的可比性。进一步将OT作为神经网络损失函数,实验显示在共享单车、充电桩和交通数据上,空间成本显著下降,而非空间误差仅轻微变化。该方法不仅提供空间显式的模型评估工具,还可融入训练过程以提升空间精度。代码已开源。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
When predicting observations across space and time, the spatial layout of errors impacts a model's real-world utility. For instance, in bike sharing demand prediction, error patterns translate to relocation costs. However, commonly used error metrics in GeoAI evaluate predictions point-wise, neglecting effects such as spatial heterogeneity, autocorrelation, and the Modifiable Areal Unit Problem. We put forward Optimal Transport (OT) as a spatial evaluation metric and loss function. The proposed framework, called GeOT, assesses the performance of prediction models by quantifying the transport costs associated with their prediction errors. Through experiments on real and synthetic data, we demonstrate that 1) the spatial distribution of prediction errors relates to real-world costs in many applications, 2) OT captures these spatial costs more accurately than existing metrics, and 3) OT enhances comparability across spatial and temporal scales. Finally, we advocate for leveraging OT as a loss function in neural networks to improve the spatial accuracy of predictions. Experiments with bike sharing, charging station, and traffic datasets show that spatial costs are significantly reduced with only marginal changes to non-spatial error metrics. Thus, this approach not only offers a spatially explicit tool for model evaluation and selection, but also integrates spatial considerations into model training. All code is available at https://github.com/mie-lab/geospatialOT.
Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。