分解多智能体决策中动作的反事实影响,明确各智能体与状态变量的贡献。
Counterfactual Effect Decomposition in Multi-Agent Sequential Decision Making
- 用因果分解法将反事实影响拆分为行为传播与状态转移两部分。
- 通过谢泼德值分配个体智能体贡献,基于结构保持干预分配状态变量贡献。
- 适用于大模型辅助的复杂场景解释,如医疗决策模拟与网格世界博弈。
本文针对多智能体马尔可夫决策过程中的反事实结果解释难题,旨在通过分析某一智能体动作对已发生情景结果的影响,揭示其对环境动态和其它智能体行为的作用。我们提出一种新的因果解释公式,将总反事实效应分解为两个部分:一个反映该动作通过后续智能体行为传播的影响,另一个反映通过状态转移传播的影响。基于最新的因果贡献分析进展,进一步细化分解:对前者引入特定智能体效应(agent-specific effects),量化某动作经由部分智能体传递的反事实影响,并使用谢泼德值(Shapley value)分配给各智能体;对后者采用结构保持干预(structure-preserving interventions)概念,根据状态变量的“内在”贡献进行归因。在包含大语言模型辅助智能体的网格世界环境及脓毒症管理模拟器中,实验验证了该方法在解释性方面的有效性。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
We address the challenge of explaining counterfactual outcomes in multi-agent Markov decision processes. In particular, we aim to explain the total counterfactual effect of an agent's action on the outcome of a realized scenario through its influence on the environment dynamics and the agents' behavior. To achieve this, we introduce a novel causal explanation formula that decomposes the counterfactual effect by attributing to each agent and state variable a score reflecting their respective contributions to the effect. First, we show that the total counterfactual effect of an agent's action can be decomposed into two components: one measuring the effect that propagates through all subsequent agents' actions and another related to the effect that propagates through the state transitions. Building on recent advancements in causal contribution analysis, we further decompose these two effects as follows. For the former, we consider agent-specific effects -- a causal concept that quantifies the counterfactual effect of an agent's action that propagates through a subset of agents. Based on this notion, we use Shapley value to attribute the effect to individual agents. For the latter, we consider the concept of structure-preserving interventions and attribute the effect to state variables based on their "intrinsic" contributions. Through extensive experimentation, we demonstrate the interpretability of our approach in a Gridworld environment with LLM-assisted agents and a sepsis management simulator.
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