考虑用户流失的推荐算法,发现高留存策略未必追求短期高收益。
Algorithmic Content Selection and the Impact of User Disengagement
- 构建用户分层的动态规划模型,精确求解最优内容推荐策略。
- 证明在线学习算法具备无悔性,适应未知且可能恶意的用户行为。
- 提出修正需求弹性概念,揭示高流失率下反而可能提升用户参与度。
数字服务在内容选择中面临核心权衡:短期高收益内容与长期用户留存之间的矛盾。传统多臂老虎机模型假设用户始终在线,未考虑用户因不满而流失的风险。本文提出一个显式建模用户参与度和流失率的内容选择框架。在该框架中,最大化即时收益的内容未必最有利于长期参与。我们提出两方面贡献:第一,针对具有 $k$ 种参与状态的用户,设计动态规划算法,在 $O(k^2)$ 时间内计算出最优策略;并为在线学习场景提供无悔性保证,适用于参与模式未知甚至对抗性的用户序列。第二,引入修正需求弹性概念,衡量用户整体满意度微小变化对平台长期收入的影响,将用户重回机制纳入分析,揭示了反直觉现象:尽管更高流失摩擦(即更低重回概率)通常降低总体收入,但在最优策略下却可带来更高用户参与度。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Digital services face a fundamental trade-off in content selection: they must balance the immediate revenue gained from high-reward content against the long-term benefits of maintaining user engagement. Traditional multi-armed bandit models assume that users remain perpetually engaged, failing to capture the possibility that users may disengage when dissatisfied, thereby reducing future revenue potential. In this work, we introduce a model for the content selection problem that explicitly accounts for variable user engagement and disengagement. In our framework, content that maximizes immediate reward is not necessarily optimal in terms of fostering sustained user engagement. Our contributions are twofold. First, we develop computational and statistical methods for offline optimization and online learning of content selection policies. For users whose engagement patterns are defined by $k$ distinct levels, we design a dynamic programming algorithm that computes the exact optimal policy in $O(k^2)$ time. Moreover, we derive no-regret learning guarantees for an online learning setting in which the platform serves a series of users with unknown and potentially adversarial engagement patterns. Second, we introduce the concept of modified demand elasticity which captures how small changes in a user's overall satisfaction affect the platform's ability to secure long-term revenue. This notion generalizes classical demand elasticity by incorporating the dynamics of user re-engagement, thereby revealing key insights into the interplay between engagement and revenue. Notably, our analysis uncovers a counterintuitive phenomenon: although higher friction (i.e., a reduced likelihood of re-engagement) typically lowers overall revenue, it can simultaneously lead to higher user engagement under optimal content selection policies.
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