arXiv:2410.13303cs.LGcs.AI2024-10被引 2

提出Hiformer模型,提升长期风电预测精度与效率

Hiformer: Hybrid Frequency Feature Enhancement Inverted Transformer for Long-Term Wind Power Prediction

  • 融合信号分解与气象特征提取,增强风速与发电关联建模
  • 精度最高提升52.5%,计算时间减少68.5%
  • 适合需要高效长周期风电预测的电网调度场景

气候变化加剧推动可再生能源转型,风电大规模应用对电网稳定提出挑战。现有研究多聚焦短期预测,忽视长期预测需求。长期预测需考虑风速、风向等气象因素,直接影响发电量。传统短时方法在长期场景中易产生误差且计算成本高。为此,本文提出混合频域特征增强反向变换器(Hiformer),结合信号分解与气象特征提取技术,强化气象条件与发电量间的关联建模。采用仅编码器结构,降低长期预测的计算复杂度。实验表明,相比当前最优方法,Hiformer在预测精度上最高提升52.5%,计算时间最多减少68.5%。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

The increasing severity of climate change necessitates an urgent transition to renewable energy sources, making the large-scale adoption of wind energy crucial for mitigating environmental impact. However, the inherent uncertainty of wind power poses challenges for grid stability, underscoring the need for accurate wind energy prediction models to enable effective power system planning and operation. While many existing studies on wind power prediction focus on short-term forecasting, they often overlook the importance of long-term predictions. Long-term wind power forecasting is essential for effective power grid dispatch and market transactions, as it requires careful consideration of weather features such as wind speed and direction, which directly influence power output. Consequently, methods designed for short-term predictions may lead to inaccurate results and high computational costs in long-term settings. To adress these limitations, we propose a novel approach called Hybrid Frequency Feature Enhancement Inverted Transformer (Hiformer). Hiformer introduces a unique structure that integrates signal decomposition technology with weather feature extraction technique to enhance the modeling of correlations between meteorological conditions and wind power generation. Additionally, Hiformer employs an encoder-only architecture, which reduces the computational complexity associated with long-term wind power forecasting. Compared to the state-of-the-art methods, Hiformer: (i) can improve the prediction accuracy by up to 52.5\%; and (ii) can reduce computational time by up to 68.5\%.

风电预测时间序列Transformer气象建模

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