arXiv:2410.13404cs.LG2024-10被引 1

用临床数据提升乳腺癌生存预测准确率,助力精准治疗决策。

Predicting Breast Cancer Survival: A Survival Analysis Approach Using Log Odds and Clinical Variables

  • 结合临床变量与生存分析模型预测患者生存风险
  • 年龄大、肿瘤大、HER2阳性者死亡风险显著升高
  • 适合临床医生和肿瘤研究者参考,尤其资源有限地区

乳腺癌仍是全球重大健康挑战,预后和治疗决策主要依赖临床特征。准确预测患者结局对个性化治疗至关重要。本研究采用Cox比例风险模型和参数生存模型,基于1557名来自尼日利亚伊巴丹大学附属医院公开数据集的乳腺癌患者,分析肿瘤大小、激素受体状态、HER2状态、年龄及治疗史等临床变量对生存的影响。通过单变量与多变量分析,绘制Kaplan-Meier生存曲线,并识别关键风险因素。结果显示,高龄、肿瘤较大及HER2阳性与死亡风险显著相关;而雌激素受体阳性及保乳手术则与更好生存结局相关。研究证明整合这些临床变量可提升生存预测准确性,有助于识别高危患者并实施强化干预。该方法在资源有限环境下具有应用潜力。未来需结合基因组数据与真实世界临床结果进一步优化模型。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Breast cancer remains a significant global health challenge, with prognosis and treatment decisions largely dependent on clinical characteristics. Accurate prediction of patient outcomes is crucial for personalized treatment strategies. This study employs survival analysis techniques, including Cox proportional hazards and parametric survival models, to enhance the prediction of the log odds of survival in breast cancer patients. Clinical variables such as tumor size, hormone receptor status, HER2 status, age, and treatment history were analyzed to assess their impact on survival outcomes. Data from 1557 breast cancer patients were obtained from a publicly available dataset provided by the University College Hospital, Ibadan, Nigeria. This dataset was preprocessed and analyzed using both univariate and multivariate approaches to evaluate survival outcomes. Kaplan-Meier survival curves were generated to visualize survival probabilities, while the Cox proportional hazards model identified key risk factors influencing mortality. The results showed that older age, larger tumor size, and HER2-positive status were significantly associated with an increased risk of mortality. In contrast, estrogen receptor positivity and breast-conserving surgery were linked to better survival outcomes. The findings suggest that integrating these clinical variables into predictive models improvesthe accuracy of survival predictions, helping to identify high-risk patients who may benefit from more aggressive interventions. This study demonstrates the potential of survival analysis in optimizing breast cancer care, particularly in resource-limited settings. Future research should focus on integrating genomic data and real-world clinical outcomes to further refine these models.

生存分析乳腺癌临床预测风险评估

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