arXiv:2410.13773cs.LG2024-10被引 19

优化随机森林模型,显著提升零售销售预测准确率。

Enhancing Retail Sales Forecasting with Optimized Machine Learning Models

  • 通过随机搜索交叉验证优化随机森林超参数
  • R²达0.945,远超线性回归的0.531和同类模型
  • 适合需要高精度销售预测的零售企业决策参考

在零售销售预测中,准确预测未来销量对库存管理和战略规划至关重要。传统方法如线性回归(LR)因销售数据的复杂性——包括季节性和多品类产品——常表现不佳。本文利用机器学习技术,特别是随机森林(RF)、梯度提升(GB)、支持向量回归(SVR)和XGBoost,提升预测精度。针对高季节性与多产品家族数据集的挑战,提出通过随机搜索交叉验证优化RF模型。该优化模型达到R²为0.945,显著高于初始RF和传统LR(R²=0.531)。其根均方对数误差(RMSLE)降至1.172,优于梯度提升(R²=0.942)、SVR(R²=0.940)和XGBoost(R²=0.939),且拥有更低的均方误差(MSE)和平均绝对误差(MAE)。结果表明,优化后的随机森林在处理复杂零售数据时具有更高准确性和可靠性,为预测分析提供了重要改进。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

In retail sales forecasting, accurately predicting future sales is crucial for inventory management and strategic planning. Traditional methods like LR often fall short due to the complexity of sales data, which includes seasonality and numerous product families. Recent advancements in machine learning (ML) provide more robust alternatives. This research benefits from the power of ML, particularly Random Forest (RF), Gradient Boosting (GB), Support Vector Regression (SVR), and XGBoost, to improve prediction accuracy. Despite advancements, a significant gap exists in handling complex datasets with high seasonality and multiple product families. The proposed solution involves implementing and optimizing a RF model, leveraging hyperparameter tuning through randomized search cross-validation. This approach addresses the complexities of the dataset, capturing intricate patterns that traditional methods miss. The optimized RF model achieved an R-squared value of 0.945, substantially higher than the initial RF model and traditional LR, which had an R-squared of 0.531. The model reduced the root mean squared logarithmic error (RMSLE) to 1.172, demonstrating its superior predictive capability. The optimized RF model did better than cutting-edge models like Gradient Boosting (R-squared: 0.942), SVR (R-squared: 0.940), and XGBoost (R-squared: 0.939), with more minor mean squared error (MSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) numbers. The results demonstrate that the optimized RF model excels in forecasting retail sales, handling the datasets complexity with higher accuracy and reliability. This research highlights the importance of advanced ML techniques in predictive analytics, offering a significant improvement over traditional methods and other contemporary models.

销售预测随机森林机器学习零售优化

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