用递归神经网络检测时间序列生成模型的拟合优度,提升评估可靠性。
Recurrent Neural Goodness-of-Fit Test for Time Series
- 用RNN将时序数据转为条件独立对,适配卡方检验
- 在合成与真实数据上优于现有方法,评估更准确
- 适合金融、医疗等高风险场景的生成模型验证
时间序列数据在金融、医疗等领域至关重要,精准预测依赖先进建模技术。尽管生成模型在捕捉时序复杂动态方面表现优异,其性能评估仍面临挑战,传统指标因存在时间依赖性和高维特征而失效。本文提出一种名为REcurrent NeurAL (RENAL) Goodness-of-Fit test的新框架,利用递归神经网络将时间序列转化为条件独立的数据对,从而应用基于卡方检验的拟合优度方法评估时序依赖性。该方法提供了一种稳健且理论严谨的评估方案,尤其适用于样本量有限的场景。我们在合成数据和真实世界数据集上验证了该方法的有效性,结果表明其在可靠性和准确性上均优于现有方法。本研究填补了时间序列生成模型评估的关键空白,提供了一个实用且可适应高风险应用的工具。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Time series data are crucial across diverse domains such as finance and healthcare, where accurate forecasting and decision-making rely on advanced modeling techniques. While generative models have shown great promise in capturing the intricate dynamics inherent in time series, evaluating their performance remains a major challenge. Traditional evaluation metrics fall short due to the temporal dependencies and potential high dimensionality of the features. In this paper, we propose the REcurrent NeurAL (RENAL) Goodness-of-Fit test, a novel and statistically rigorous framework for evaluating generative time series models. By leveraging recurrent neural networks, we transform the time series into conditionally independent data pairs, enabling the application of a chi-square-based goodness-of-fit test to the temporal dependencies within the data. This approach offers a robust, theoretically grounded solution for assessing the quality of generative models, particularly in settings with limited time sequences. We demonstrate the efficacy of our method across both synthetic and real-world datasets, outperforming existing methods in terms of reliability and accuracy. Our method fills a critical gap in the evaluation of time series generative models, offering a tool that is both practical and adaptable to high-stakes applications.
Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。