用科学机器学习预测电动车电池衰减,提升寿命与可持续性
A Scientific Machine Learning Approach for Predicting and Forecasting Battery Degradation in Electric Vehicles
- 融合领域知识与神经网络的科学机器学习框架
- 短期预测MSE低至9.90,长期预测误差减少1.6986
- 适合电池管理、新能源车研发及碳中和研究者
碳排放正以惊人速度上升,严重威胁全球气候应对努力。电动汽车作为潜在解决方案,其依赖的锂离子电池面临关键挑战——电池衰减。准确预测和长期预报电池衰减对优化性能、延长寿命及实现有效能源管理至关重要,直接影响电动车的可靠性、安全性和可持续性,支持其广泛普及并契合联合国可持续发展目标(SDGs)。本文提出一种基于科学机器学习(SciML)的新型方法,将领域知识与神经网络结合,实现对短时电池健康状态的预测与长周期衰减趋势的预报。该混合方法捕捉已知与未知衰减机制,在降低数据需求的同时提升预测精度。通过真实实验数据验证,模型在UDE下实现MSE为9.90,损失值1.6986;在NeuralODE下,MSE为2.49,显著优于传统方法。该框架将数据驱动优势与科学可解释性、可扩展性结合,助力高效电池管理。通过延长电池寿命、减少资源浪费,推动能源系统可持续发展,加速全球清洁能源转型。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Carbon emissions are rising at an alarming rate, posing a significant threat to global efforts to mitigate climate change. Electric vehicles have emerged as a promising solution, but their reliance on lithium-ion batteries introduces the critical challenge of battery degradation. Accurate prediction and forecasting of battery degradation over both short and long time spans are essential for optimizing performance, extending battery life, and ensuring effective long-term energy management. This directly influences the reliability, safety, and sustainability of EVs, supporting their widespread adoption and aligning with key UN SDGs. In this paper, we present a novel approach to the prediction and long-term forecasting of battery degradation using Scientific Machine Learning framework which integrates domain knowledge with neural networks, offering more interpretable and scientifically grounded solutions for both predicting short-term battery health and forecasting degradation over extended periods. This hybrid approach captures both known and unknown degradation dynamics, improving predictive accuracy while reducing data requirements. We incorporate ground-truth data to inform our models, ensuring that both the predictions and forecasts reflect practical conditions. The model achieved MSE of 9.90 with the UDE and 11.55 with the NeuralODE, in experimental data, a loss of 1.6986 with the UDE, and a MSE of 2.49 in the NeuralODE, demonstrating the enhanced precision of our approach. This integration of data-driven insights with SciML's strengths in interpretability and scalability allows for robust battery management. By enhancing battery longevity and minimizing waste, our approach contributes to the sustainability of energy systems and accelerates the global transition toward cleaner, more responsible energy solutions, aligning with the UN's SDG agenda.
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