arXiv:2410.14587cs.LGq-fin.CP2024-10被引 3

用生成模型模拟交易员,发现AI集体决策会压低股价

Neuro-Symbolic Traders: Assessing the Wisdom of AI Crowds in Markets

  • 用视觉语言模型构建资产价值模型,通过梯度下降校准
  • 多组AI交易员在虚拟市场中使价格比历史数据低20%以上
  • 适合关注AI金融风险与市场稳定性的研究者

深度生成模型正被越来越多地用于金融分析,但其在半自主推断资产价值时对市场的潜在影响尚不明确。本文提出一种基于深度生成模型的虚拟交易员——神经符号交易员,用于探索生成模型与市场动态的相互作用。这些交易员利用视觉语言模型发现资产基本面价值,并将其建模为随机微分方程,通过梯度下降法基于市场数据进行校准。我们在合成数据及真实金融时间序列(包括股票、大宗商品和外汇)上测试该模型,并将多组神经符号交易员置于虚拟市场环境中。该环境允许交易员对资产内在价值的信念反馈至价格动态。结果表明,这种反馈机制导致价格显著低于历史水平,揭示了未来市场失稳的风险。本研究是量化生成型智能体对市场动态影响的初步尝试,指出了该方法可能带来的风险与收益。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Deep generative models are becoming increasingly used as tools for financial analysis. However, it is unclear how these models will influence financial markets, especially when they infer financial value in a semi-autonomous way. In this work, we explore the interplay between deep generative models and market dynamics. We develop a form of virtual traders that use deep generative models to make buy/sell decisions, which we term neuro-symbolic traders, and expose them to a virtual market. Under our framework, neuro-symbolic traders are agents that use vision-language models to discover a model of the fundamental value of an asset. Agents develop this model as a stochastic differential equation, calibrated to market data using gradient descent. We test our neuro-symbolic traders on both synthetic data and real financial time series, including an equity stock, commodity, and a foreign exchange pair. We then expose several groups of neuro-symbolic traders to a virtual market environment. This market environment allows for feedback between the traders belief of the underlying value to the observed price dynamics. We find that this leads to price suppression compared to the historical data, highlighting a future risk to market stability. Our work is a first step towards quantifying the effect of deep generative agents on markets dynamics and sets out some of the potential risks and benefits of this approach in the future.

AI交易市场动态生成模型金融风险

Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。