提出统一建模多时间尺度北极海冰的基座模型,提升预测精度。
SIFM: A Foundation Model for Multi-granularity Arctic Sea Ice Forecasting
- 构建多粒度时间尺度的海冰预测基座模型,融合不同时间跨度信息
- 在多个时间尺度上均超越专用深度学习模型表现
- 适合气候建模、极地生态与沿海安全研究者使用
北极海冰在全球气候中起关键作用,对极地生态系统和沿海社区影响深远。近年来,基于深度学习的泛北极海冰浓度(SIC)预测方法性能已超越传统物理动力模型。但以往方法仅针对固定时间粒度(如次季节或季节)进行预测,仅利用粒度内信息,忽视了不同粒度间的丰富关联。实际上,不同时间尺度的海冰浓度具有累积效应且天然一致:短期波动可能影响长期趋势,而长期趋势又能为短期预测提供有效提示。因此,本研究从海冰再分析数据中自然提取多时间粒度,提出海冰基座模型(SIFM),通过统一视角建模SIC。SIFM精心设计以同时利用粒度内与粒度间信息,捕捉一致性表征,从而提升预测能力。大量实验表明,SIFM在各特定时间粒度上均优于现有深度学习模型。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Arctic sea ice performs a vital role in global climate and has paramount impacts on both polar ecosystems and coastal communities. In the last few years, multiple deep learning based pan-Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) forecasting methods have emerged and showcased superior performance over physics-based dynamical models. However, previous methods forecast SIC at a fixed temporal granularity, e.g. sub-seasonal or seasonal, thus only leveraging inter-granularity information and overlooking the plentiful inter-granularity correlations. SIC at various temporal granularities exhibits cumulative effects and are naturally consistent, with short-term fluctuations potentially impacting long-term trends and long-term trends provides effective hints for facilitating short-term forecasts in Arctic sea ice. Therefore, in this study, we propose to cultivate temporal multi-granularity that naturally derived from Arctic sea ice reanalysis data and provide a unified perspective for modeling SIC via our Sea Ice Foundation Model. SIFM is delicately designed to leverage both intra-granularity and inter-granularity information for capturing granularity-consistent representations that promote forecasting skills. Our extensive experiments show that SIFM outperforms off-the-shelf deep learning models for their specific temporal granularity.
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