arXiv:2410.15111cs.AI2024-10被引 3

用提示工程增强大模型,提升地铁延误时的客流预测精度。

A Prompt Refinement-based Large Language Model for Metro Passenger Flow Forecasting under Delay Conditions

  • 通过两阶段提示工程,让大模型理解延误信息与历史客流模式。
  • 在深圳地铁数据上,延误场景下的预测误差显著降低。
  • 适合需要小样本下高精度预测的交通管理系统使用。

在地铁延误条件下进行准确的短期客流预测对于应急响应和服务恢复至关重要,但此类研究仍较为薄弱。由于延误事件稀少,导致延误条件下的样本量有限,传统模型难以有效捕捉延误对客流的复杂影响,造成预测精度低下。鉴于大语言模型(LLM)在少样本学习中的优势,如强大的预训练能力、上下文理解及零样本/少样本推理能力,本文提出一种结合精心设计提示工程的客流预测框架,以应对数据稀缺下的泛化与适应难题。该框架包含两个关键阶段:系统性提示生成与提示精炼。提示生成阶段将多源数据转化为大模型可理解的描述性文本并存储;提示精炼阶段采用多维度思维链(CoT)方法优化提示。基于中国深圳地铁的真实数据集进行实验验证,结果表明,所提模型在延误条件下的客流预测表现优异。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Accurate short-term forecasts of passenger flow in metro systems under delay conditions are crucial for emergency response and service recovery, which pose significant challenges and are currently under-researched. Due to the rare occurrence of delay events, the limited sample size under delay condictions make it difficult for conventional models to effectively capture the complex impacts of delays on passenger flow, resulting in low forecasting accuracy. Recognizing the strengths of large language models (LLMs) in few-shot learning due to their powerful pre-training, contextual understanding, ability to perform zero-shot and few-shot reasoning, to address the issues that effectively generalize and adapt with minimal data, we propose a passenger flow forecasting framework under delay conditions that synthesizes an LLM with carefully designed prompt engineering. By Refining prompt design, we enable the LLM to understand delay event information and the pattern from historical passenger flow data, thus overcoming the challenges of passenger flow forecasting under delay conditions. The propmpt engineering in the framework consists of two main stages: systematic prompt generation and prompt refinement. In the prompt generation stage, multi-source data is transformed into descriptive texts understandable by the LLM and stored. In the prompt refinement stage, we employ the multidimensional Chain of Thought (CoT) method to refine the prompts. We verify the proposed framework by conducting experiments using real-world datasets specifically targeting passenger flow forecasting under delay conditions of Shenzhen metro in China. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model performs particularly well in forecasting passenger flow under delay conditions.

客流预测大模型提示工程地铁

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