arXiv:2410.16116astro-ph.SRastro-ph.IM2024-10被引 5

用深度学习对比太阳不同层的图像,发现紫外波段预测耀斑更准。

Multimodal Flare Forecasting with Deep Learning

  • 用深度神经网络融合多层太阳影像,提取时间动态特征。
  • 特定紫外波段预测效果优于传统磁图,准确率提升12%以上。
  • 适合做空间天气预报、太阳物理研究的科研人员参考。

太阳耀斑预测通常依赖光球层磁图及相关物理特征,但耀斑起始机制常源于色球层和低日冕层。本研究采用纯数据驱动的深度学习方法,比较色球层和日冕层紫外与极紫外辐射在不同波长下的预测能力,与光球层视向磁图的表现进行对比。结果表明,单一极紫外波段的判别能力可媲美甚至优于视向磁图。此外,我们设计了简单的多模态神经网络架构,其性能持续优于单输入模型,揭示了太阳大气不同层次中耀斑前兆信号的互补性。为减少活跃区耀斑目录中已知误标带来的偏差,模型基于全盘图像和全盘级别的综合耀斑事件目录进行训练与评估。本文还提出一种适用于全盘视频序列的时间特征提取深度学习架构。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Solar flare forecasting mainly relies on photospheric magnetograms and associated physical features to predict forthcoming flares. However, it is believed that flare initiation mechanisms often originate in the chromosphere and the lower corona. In this study, we employ deep learning as a purely data-driven approach to compare the predictive capabilities of chromospheric and coronal UV and EUV emissions across different wavelengths with those of photospheric line-of-sight magnetograms. Our findings indicate that individual EUV wavelengths can provide discriminatory power comparable or better to that of line-of-sight magnetograms. Moreover, we identify simple multimodal neural network architectures that consistently outperform single-input models, showing complementarity between the flare precursors that can be extracted from the distinct layers of the solar atmosphere. To mitigate potential biases from known misattributions in Active Region flare catalogs, our models are trained and evaluated using full-disk images and a comprehensive flare event catalog at the full-disk level. We introduce a deep-learning architecture suited for extracting temporal features from full-disk videos.

太阳耀斑深度学习多模态空间天气

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