Hydra-LSTM融合共用与特有数据,提升跨流域径流预测精度。
Hydra-LSTM: A semi-shared Machine Learning architecture for prediction across Watersheds
- 分路处理通用与特定流域变量,支持灵活扩展输入
- 在美西流域1天前径流预测中达当前最优表现
- 无需重训练即可加入新变量,适合实际业务使用
长短期记忆网络(LSTM)常用于构建跨流域的单一径流预测模型,相比独立建模可提升精度。然而,各流域数据覆盖不均,导致部分变量(如历史径流或上游径流)无法普遍使用。现有方法虽支持可选变量,但要求所有变量在初始训练中固定,限制了模型迁移能力。为此,我们提出Hydra-LSTM:将全流域通用变量与仅部分流域可用的特有变量分路处理,实现模型共享与本地数据灵活引入。该架构在美西地区1天前径流预测任务中达到领先性能,优于多流域和单流域LSTM,且支持预报员动态增删变量。通过引入历史径流作为特有输入,模型表现超越现有最优模型,无需重新训练即可部署。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Long Short Term Memory networks (LSTMs) are used to build single models that predict river discharge across many catchments. These models offer greater accuracy than models trained on each catchment independently if using the same data. However, the same data is rarely available for all catchments. This prevents the use of variables available only in some catchments, such as historic river discharge or upstream discharge. The only existing method that allows for optional variables requires all variables to be considered in the initial training of the model, limiting its transferability to new catchments. To address this limitation, we develop the Hydra-LSTM. The Hydra-LSTM processes variables used across all catchments and variables used in only some catchments separately to allow general training and use of catchment-specific data in individual catchments. The bulk of the model can be shared across catchments, maintaining the benefits of multi-catchment models to generalise, while also benefitting from the advantages of using bespoke data. We apply this methodology to 1 day-ahead river discharge prediction in the Western US, as next-day river discharge prediction is the first step towards prediction across longer time scales. We obtain state-of-the-art performance, generating more accurate median and quantile predictions than Multi-Catchment and Single-Catchment LSTMs while allowing local forecasters to easily introduce and remove variables from their prediction set. We test the ability of the Hydra-LSTM to incorporate catchment-specific data by introducing historical river discharge as a catchment-specific input, outperforming state-of-the-art models without needing to train an entirely new model.
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