arXiv:2410.16928cs.LG2024-10NeurIPS被引 24

用标量记忆混合机制提升多变量时序预测精度

xLSTM-Mixer: Multivariate Time Series Forecasting by Mixing via Scalar Memories

  • 引入标量记忆的xLSTM块融合时序与多变量信息
  • 长周期预测性能优于当前最优模型,内存占用极低
  • 适合需要高精度、低资源消耗的时序预测场景

时间序列数据广泛存在于多个领域,亟需高效精准的预测模型。捕捉时序内部及变量间的复杂模式对可靠预测至关重要。本文提出xLSTM-Mixer,通过共享线性预测初始化,并由xLSTM块逐步细化,有效整合时间序列、多变量联合信息与多重视角,最终融合两种不同视图生成最终预测。大量实验表明,该模型在长周期预测上超越近期最先进方法,且内存开销极小。深入分析揭示了各组件作用,验证了其鲁棒性与有效性。本工作首次将循环模型与混合架构结合,推动了递归模型在预测任务中的复兴。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Time series data is prevalent across numerous fields, necessitating the development of robust and accurate forecasting models. Capturing patterns both within and between temporal and multivariate components is crucial for reliable predictions. We introduce xLSTM-Mixer, a model designed to effectively integrate temporal sequences, joint time-variate information, and multiple perspectives for robust forecasting. Our approach begins with a linear forecast shared across variates, which is then refined by xLSTM blocks. They serve as key elements for modeling the complex dynamics of challenging time series data. xLSTM-Mixer ultimately reconciles two distinct views to produce the final forecast. Our extensive evaluations demonstrate its superior long-term forecasting performance compared to recent state-of-the-art methods while requiring very little memory. A thorough model analysis provides further insights into its key components and confirms its robustness and effectiveness. This work contributes to the resurgence of recurrent models in forecasting by combining them, for the first time, with mixing architectures.

时序预测xLSTM多变量轻量化

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