提出递归分解框架LiNo,同时捕捉时间序列中的线性和非线性模式。
LiNo: Advancing Recursive Residual Decomposition of Linear and Nonlinear Patterns for Robust Time Series Forecasting
- 通过交替递归分解,显式提取线性和非线性成分。
- 在13个真实世界基准上达到当前最优性能。
- 适合需要高精度多变量时间序列预测的场景。
时间序列预测在数据驱动的世界中至关重要,其数据常由大量线性和非线性模式复合而成。现有深度预测模型难以有效利用季节与趋势分解来分离纠缠成分,仅显式提取简单线性模式(如趋势),而将其他线性分量和未探索的非线性模式留作残差。这种线性/非线性特征提取不充分及浅层分解限制了模型对真实场景中多样模式的适应能力。为此,我们提出递归残差分解(LiNo),显式提取线性和非线性模式。该框架通过Li模块(可为移动平均核)捕获线性模式,通过No模块(可为Transformer编码器)建模非线性模式,并交替递归执行。为充分发挥潜力,我们将传统线性提取器升级为通用可学习自回归模型,并设计新型No模块以处理所有关键非线性模式。显著的是,LiNo在13个真实世界基准上实现了单变量与多变量预测场景下的当前最优表现。实验表明,该方法可显著提升预测模型的鲁棒性与精度。代码已开源:https://github.com/Levi-Ackman/LiNo。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Forecasting models are pivotal in a data-driven world with vast volumes of time series data that appear as a compound of vast Linear and Nonlinear patterns. Recent deep time series forecasting models struggle to utilize seasonal and trend decomposition to separate the entangled components. Such a strategy only explicitly extracts simple linear patterns like trends, leaving the other linear modes and vast unexplored nonlinear patterns to the residual. Their flawed linear and nonlinear feature extraction models and shallow-level decomposition limit their adaptation to the diverse patterns present in real-world scenarios. Given this, we innovate Recursive Residual Decomposition by introducing explicit extraction of both linear and nonlinear patterns. This deeper-level decomposition framework, which is named LiNo, captures linear patterns using a Li block which can be a moving average kernel, and models nonlinear patterns using a No block which can be a Transformer encoder. The extraction of these two patterns is performed alternatively and recursively. To achieve the full potential of LiNo, we develop the current simple linear pattern extractor to a general learnable autoregressive model, and design a novel No block that can handle all essential nonlinear patterns. Remarkably, the proposed LiNo achieves state-of-the-art on thirteen real-world benchmarks under univariate and multivariate forecasting scenarios. Experiments show that current forecasting models can deliver more robust and precise results through this advanced Recursive Residual Decomposition. We hope this work could offer insight into designing more effective forecasting models. Code is available at this Repository: https://github.com/Levi-Ackman/LiNo.
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