arXiv:2410.17290q-bio.PEcs.LG2024-10综述被引 18

综述2015-2022年传染病爆发检测方法与数据源,助力早期预警。

Disease Outbreak Detection and Forecasting: A Review of Methods and Data Sources

  • 整合传统医疗数据与社交媒体、网络搜索等实时数据源。
  • 系统梳理时间序列分析在疫情早期发现中的应用方法。
  • 适合公共卫生决策者与流行病学研究者参考。

传染病由病原体从他人或动物传播至人体引发,对个体与社会均造成危害。疫情爆发可能严重威胁公共健康,但早期检测与追踪可有效降低死亡率。为应对这一挑战,各国已建立综合疾病数据收集机制,构建了以临床医疗系统、地方/州卫生机构、联邦部门、学术团体及政府合作方为核心的传染病监测体系。近年来,搜索引擎和社交媒体平台成为监测疾病趋势的新兴工具。互联网与社交平台用户实时分享信息,可用于评估思想传播与社会舆论,广泛应用于营销、金融预测及公共卫生等领域。本文综述2015至2022年间研究人员开发的基于时间序列数据的疫情检测方法,涵盖传统数据源与社交媒体、互联网数据等多元信息来源。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Infectious diseases occur when pathogens from other individuals or animals infect a person, resulting in harm to both individuals and society as a whole. The outbreak of such diseases can pose a significant threat to human health. However, early detection and tracking of these outbreaks have the potential to reduce the mortality impact. To address these threats, public health authorities have endeavored to establish comprehensive mechanisms for collecting disease data. Many countries have implemented infectious disease surveillance systems, with the detection of epidemics being a primary objective. The clinical healthcare system, local/state health agencies, federal agencies, academic/professional groups, and collaborating governmental entities all play pivotal roles within this system. Moreover, nowadays, search engines and social media platforms can serve as valuable tools for monitoring disease trends. The Internet and social media have become significant platforms where users share information about their preferences and relationships. This real-time information can be harnessed to gauge the influence of ideas and societal opinions, making it highly useful across various domains and research areas, such as marketing campaigns, financial predictions, and public health, among others. This article provides a review of the existing standard methods developed by researchers for detecting outbreaks using time series data. These methods leverage various data sources, including conventional data sources and social media data or Internet data sources. The review particularly concentrates on works published within the timeframe of 2015 to 2022.

传染病监测系统数据源预警

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