arXiv:2410.17545cs.LG2024-10中稿 · 2024 3rd Internati…被引 22

用LSTM模型分析医保患者30天再入院风险,提升预测准确性。

Predicting 30-Day Hospital Readmission in Medicare Patients: Insights from an LSTM Deep Learning Model

  • 基于LSTM捕捉患者住院数据的时间动态特征
  • 在MIMIC数据集上准确预测再入院,优于逻辑回归基线
  • 关键影响因素为共病指数、住院时长和近期入院次数

美国医保受益人的再入院问题是医疗运营与患者照护结果的重要挑战。本研究采用基于特征工程的LSTM网络分析医保再入院情况,选取入院级数据、住院病史及患者人口统计信息作为变量。该LSTM模型旨在捕获入院级与患者级数据中的时间动态特征。在MIMIC数据集上的案例研究显示,该模型性能优于逻辑回归基线,能有效利用时间特征进行再入院预测。主要影响因素包括查尔森共病指数(Charlson Comorbidity Index)、住院时长以及过去6个月内住院次数,而人口统计变量影响较小。研究表明,LSTM网络为提升医保患者再入院预测提供了更优路径,可挖掘患者数据库中的时间交互关系,增强现有预测模型能力。将此类预测模型引入临床实践,有助于更早识别高风险患者并实施针对性干预,改善患者预后。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Readmissions among Medicare beneficiaries are a major problem for the US healthcare system from a perspective of both healthcare operations and patient caregiving outcomes. Our study analyzes Medicare hospital readmissions using LSTM networks with feature engineering to assess feature contributions. We selected variables from admission-level data, inpatient medical history and patient demography. The LSTM model is designed to capture temporal dynamics from admission-level and patient-level data. On a case study on the MIMIC dataset, the LSTM model outperformed the logistic regression baseline, accurately leveraging temporal features to predict readmission. The major features were the Charlson Comorbidity Index, hospital length of stay, the hospital admissions over the past 6 months, while demographic variables were less impactful. This work suggests that LSTM networks offers a more promising approach to improve Medicare patient readmission prediction. It captures temporal interactions in patient databases, enhancing current prediction models for healthcare providers. Adoption of predictive models into clinical practice may be more effective in identifying Medicare patients to provide early and targeted interventions to improve patient outcomes.

深度学习医疗预测LSTM再入院

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