arXiv:2410.17851cs.LGcs.AI2024-10中稿 · and presented at I…被引 8

让塔斯金机学会量化预测不确定性,提升可解释性。

The Probabilistic Tsetlin Machine: A Novel Approach to Uncertainty Quantification

  • 用概率分布替代确定状态,通过反馈机制学习每个自动机的状态概率
  • 在噪声XOR和鸢尾花数据集上验证,能准确识别高不确定性区域
  • 适合需要可解释性与可靠不确定性的决策场景,如医疗诊断

塔斯金机(Tsetlin Machines, TMs)作为深度学习的替代方案,具备内存占用小、推理快、容错性强和可解释性高等优势。尽管已有多种改进拓展了其应用范围,但如何量化预测不确定性仍是未解难题。本文提出概率塔斯金机(Probabilistic Tsetlin Machine, PTM),通过学习每个命题中每个塔斯金自动机(TA)的状态概率来实现不确定性量化。该概率基于原生反馈表(类型I与类型II反馈)更新,在推理时通过采样状态决定行为,类似贝叶斯神经网络生成权重。实验表明,针对含噪XOR数据集,PTM可清晰展现各状态概率分布;在模拟与真实数据集上的对比测试显示,其在决策边界划分与高不确定性区域识别方面表现优异。在鸢尾花多分类任务中,其预测熵与预期校准误差均达竞争力水平,证明其在不确定性估计中的可靠性。研究强调模型选择对准确量化不确定性的重要性,而PTM提供了兼具可解释性与有效性解决方案。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Tsetlin Machines (TMs) have emerged as a compelling alternative to conventional deep learning methods, offering notable advantages such as smaller memory footprint, faster inference, fault-tolerant properties, and interpretability. Although various adaptations of TMs have expanded their applicability across diverse domains, a fundamental gap remains in understanding how TMs quantify uncertainty in their predictions. In response, this paper introduces the Probabilistic Tsetlin Machine (PTM) framework, aimed at providing a robust, reliable, and interpretable approach for uncertainty quantification. Unlike the original TM, the PTM learns the probability of staying on each state of each Tsetlin Automaton (TA) across all clauses. These probabilities are updated using the feedback tables that are part of the TM framework: Type I and Type II feedback. During inference, TAs decide their actions by sampling states based on learned probability distributions, akin to Bayesian neural networks when generating weight values. In our experimental analysis, we first illustrate the spread of the probabilities across TA states for the noisy-XOR dataset. Then we evaluate the PTM alongside benchmark models using both simulated and real-world datasets. The experiments on the simulated dataset reveal the PTM's effectiveness in uncertainty quantification, particularly in delineating decision boundaries and identifying regions of high uncertainty. Moreover, when applied to multiclass classification tasks using the Iris dataset, the PTM demonstrates competitive performance in terms of predictive entropy and expected calibration error, showcasing its potential as a reliable tool for uncertainty estimation. Our findings underscore the importance of selecting appropriate models for accurate uncertainty quantification in predictive tasks, with the PTM offering a particularly interpretable and effective solution.

不确定性量化可解释性概率建模塔斯金机

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