arXiv:2410.18904physics.ao-phcs.LG2024-10被引 7

用新型神经网络提升天气预报时间分辨率,让6小时数据变1小时更准。

Modulated Adaptive Fourier Neural Operators for Temporal Interpolation of Weather Forecasts

  • 引入可调谐的傅里叶神经算子,根据目标时间动态调整模型参数。
  • 在6小时间隔间插值生成1小时分辨率数据,误差比线性插值降低50%。
  • 适合需要高精度时间序列的气象建模与极端天气模拟场景。

气象与气候数据常因存储限制或深度学习模型固有的长时步而仅具备有限的时间分辨率,难以捕捉快速演变的天气现象。为解决此问题,本文提出一种插值模型,用于重建已知两时刻之间的大气状态。该模型采用新型网络层——调制自适应傅里叶神经算子(ModAFNO),其在原有AFNO基础上引入目标时间的嵌入向量,并在层内施加可学习的缩放-平移操作以适配特定时间。由此,单一模型即可生成所有中间时间步结果。模型在训练时以6小时间隔数据为输入,可生成1小时分辨率的中间结果,视觉上几乎无法与真实1小时数据区分。相较于线性插值,其重构中间步骤的均方根误差(RMSE)降低约50%。此外,模型对飓风、热浪等极端天气事件的统计特征还原能力优于原始6小时数据。该模组化设计具有通用性,适用于其他需可调预测时延的气象任务。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Weather and climate data are often available at limited temporal resolution, either due to storage limitations, or in the case of weather forecast models based on deep learning, their inherently long time steps. The coarse temporal resolution makes it difficult to capture rapidly evolving weather events. To address this limitation, we introduce an interpolation model that reconstructs the atmospheric state between two points in time for which the state is known. The model makes use of a novel network layer that modifies the adaptive Fourier neural operator (AFNO), which has been previously used in weather prediction and other applications of machine learning to physics problems. The modulated AFNO (ModAFNO) layer takes an embedding, here computed from the interpolation target time, as an additional input and applies a learned shift-scale operation inside the AFNO layers to adapt them to the target time. Thus, one model can be used to produce all intermediate time steps. Trained to interpolate between two time steps 6 h apart, the ModAFNO-based interpolation model produces 1 h resolution intermediate time steps that are visually nearly indistinguishable from the actual corresponding 1 h resolution data. The model reduces the RMSE loss of reconstructing the intermediate steps by approximately 50% compared to linear interpolation. We also demonstrate its ability to reproduce the statistics of extreme weather events such as hurricanes and heat waves better than 6 h resolution data. The ModAFNO layer is generic and is expected to be applicable to other problems, including weather forecasting with tunable lead time.

天气预报时间插值神经算子极端天气

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