arXiv:2410.19074stat.MLcs.CE2024-10

构建多尺度状态空间模型,实现切换状态下的贝叶斯学习与动态追踪。

A Generalized Framework for Multiscale State-Space Modeling with Nested Nonlinear Dynamics: An Application to Bayesian Learning under Switching Regimes

  • 通过嵌套非线性动态的分层结构建模快慢过程交互。
  • 利用粒子滤波实现状态切换的精准追踪与识别。
  • 适用于存在瞬态变化的复杂系统分析,适合动态建模研究者。

本文提出一种广义的多尺度状态空间建模框架,融合嵌套非线性动态,聚焦于切换状态下的贝叶斯学习。该框架捕捉系统中快慢过程间的复杂相互作用,通过分层结构将细粒度时间尺度动态嵌入粗粒度动态中,并支持跨尺度反馈。为促进实际应用,我们解决切换状态与瞬态动态的识别问题,设计基于贝叶斯学习的方法以估计隐状态和切换指标,使模型能有效适应状态变化。采用序贯蒙特卡洛(粒子滤波)进行推断。通过仿真验证框架有效性,结果表明该方法能准确追踪状态转移并识别多尺度系统中的切换动态。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

In this work, we introduce a generalized framework for multiscale state-space modeling that incorporates nested nonlinear dynamics, with a specific focus on Bayesian learning under switching regimes. Our framework captures the complex interactions between fast and slow processes within systems, allowing for the analysis of how these dynamics influence each other across various temporal scales. We model these interactions through a hierarchical structure in which finer time-scale dynamics are nested within coarser ones, while facilitating feedback between the scales. To promote the practical application of our framework, we address the problem of identifying switching regimes and transient dynamics. In particular, we develop a Bayesian learning approach to estimate latent states and indicators corresponding to switching dynamics, enabling the model to adapt effectively to regime changes. We employ Sequential Monte Carlo, or particle filtering, for inference. We illustrate the utility of our framework through simulations. The results demonstrate that our Bayesian learning approach effectively tracks state transitions and achieves accurate identification of switching dynamics in multiscale systems.

状态空间贝叶斯学习多尺度建模

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