用时间序列预测增强轨迹多样性,提升自动驾驶安全性
Multi-modal Motion Prediction using Temporal Ensembling with Learning-based Aggregation
- 通过相邻帧预测融合,扩大空间覆盖与行为多样性
- 在Argoverse 2上降低minADE 4%、minFDE 5%、漏检率1.16%
- 基于DETR架构的动态聚合机制,避免错误驾驶行为误入最终结果
近年来轨迹预测逐渐转向学习型方法,但仍面临不确定性与多模态分布建模的挑战。本文提出时间集成与学习式聚合(Temporal Ensembling with Learning-based Aggregation),一种元算法,旨在缓解轨迹预测中遗漏行为的问题,该问题会导致连续帧间预测不一致。不同于传统模型集成,时间集成利用邻近帧的预测结果,提升空间覆盖与预测多样性;通过多帧验证,可补偿单帧预测的偶然误差。此外,传统轨迹级聚合因忽略交通上下文,易将错误驾驶行为引入最终结果,故不适合时间集成。为此,我们采用类似DETR的模式查询机制实现学习式聚合,充分挖掘邻近帧预测特征。在Argoverse 2数据集上的实验表明,本方法相较最强基线QCNet,minADE降低4%,minFDE降低5%,漏检率下降1.16%,验证了其有效性与在自动驾驶中的应用潜力。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Recent years have seen a shift towards learning-based methods for trajectory prediction, with challenges remaining in addressing uncertainty and capturing multi-modal distributions. This paper introduces Temporal Ensembling with Learning-based Aggregation, a meta-algorithm designed to mitigate the issue of missing behaviors in trajectory prediction, which leads to inconsistent predictions across consecutive frames. Unlike conventional model ensembling, temporal ensembling leverages predictions from nearby frames to enhance spatial coverage and prediction diversity. By confirming predictions from multiple frames, temporal ensembling compensates for occasional errors in individual frame predictions. Furthermore, trajectory-level aggregation, often utilized in model ensembling, is insufficient for temporal ensembling due to a lack of consideration of traffic context and its tendency to assign candidate trajectories with incorrect driving behaviors to final predictions. We further emphasize the necessity of learning-based aggregation by utilizing mode queries within a DETR-like architecture for our temporal ensembling, leveraging the characteristics of predictions from nearby frames. Our method, validated on the Argoverse 2 dataset, shows notable improvements: a 4% reduction in minADE, a 5% decrease in minFDE, and a 1.16% reduction in the miss rate compared to the strongest baseline, QCNet, highlighting its efficacy and potential in autonomous driving.
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