arXiv:2410.19865cs.LGcs.AI2024-10被引 2

用深度学习预测美国无监测流域水温,验证了全局模型优于局部模型。

Evaluating Deep Learning Approaches for Predictions in Unmonitored Basins with Continental-scale Stream Temperature Models

  • 采用全局、局部与分组三种建模方式对比,发现全局模型更优。
  • 减少输入变量后仍保持可接受精度,降低计算成本。
  • 对受气温主导的流域预测更准,地下水和大坝影响显著降低效果。

无监测流域的河流流量及其他环境变量预测是水文领域的重大挑战。近年来,机器学习模型可利用大规模数据实现大尺度精准预测,但模型设计及输入数据需求仍存在开放问题。本研究探索这些问题,并展示深度学习模型在美本土48州无监测流域进行水温预测的能力。首先,比较基于大量流域数据的自上而下模型与基于局部站点迁移学习的自下而上方法,以及按区域共现或流域特征相似性分组的中间方法;其次,系统性地移除输入变量,评估模型复杂度、预测精度与适用范围之间的权衡。结果表明,自上而下模型显著优于自下而上和分组模型。减少动态与静态输入后,仍可实现可接受精度,从而支持更多地点的预测,且模型复杂度与计算需求降低。详细误差分析显示,模型对受气温主导的流域预测更准确,而受地下水和大坝影响的区域表现较差。本研究为优化无监测区机器学习模型设计提供了全面视角。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

The prediction of streamflows and other environmental variables in unmonitored basins is a grand challenge in hydrology. Recent machine learning (ML) models can harness vast datasets for accurate predictions at large spatial scales. However, there are open questions regarding model design and data needed for inputs and training to improve performance. This study explores these questions while demonstrating the ability of deep learning models to make accurate stream temperature predictions in unmonitored basins across the conterminous United States. First, we compare top-down models that utilize data from a large number of basins with bottom-up methods that transfer ML models built on local sites, reflecting traditional regionalization techniques. We also evaluate an intermediary grouped modeling approach that categorizes sites based on regional co-location or similarity of catchment characteristics. Second, we evaluate trade-offs between model complexity, prediction accuracy, and applicability for more target locations by systematically removing inputs. We then examine model performance when additional training data becomes available due to reductions in input requirements. Our results suggest that top-down models significantly outperform bottom-up and grouped models. Moreover, it is possible to get acceptable accuracy by reducing both dynamic and static inputs enabling predictions for more sites with lower model complexity and computational needs. From detailed error analysis, we determined that the models are more accurate for sites primarily controlled by air temperatures compared to locations impacted by groundwater and dams. By addressing these questions, this research offers a comprehensive perspective on optimizing ML model design for accurate predictions in unmonitored regions.

水温预测深度学习无监测流域机器学习

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