为机器学习地球系统模型提出五项独立评估建议,提升可信度。
Recommendations for Comprehensive and Independent Evaluation of Machine Learning-Based Earth System Models
- 提出五项评估建议,确保模型与物理系统一致
- 强调独立验证,避免依赖历史数据偏差
- 适合气候建模、机器学习交叉领域研究者
机器学习(ML)在多个领域展现出革命性应用,尤其在气象预报中已达到与传统物理模型相当的水平。为深化对地球系统的理解并提高全时间尺度预测能力,当前正致力于将预报模型发展为能够表征地球系统所有分量及其对外部变化响应的地球系统模型(ESMs)。然而,与天气预报相比,地球系统建模难度更高,因需预测无历史观测的未来耦合状态。由于这些基于机器学习的模型通常未显式编码物理原理,因此必须通过证据证明其与物理系统的内在一致性。为此,本文提出五项建议,以推动对机器学习驱动的地球系统模型进行更全面、标准化和独立的评估,增强其可信度,并促进广泛应用。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Machine learning (ML) is a revolutionary technology with demonstrable applications across multiple disciplines. Within the Earth science community, ML has been most visible for weather forecasting, producing forecasts that rival modern physics-based models. Given the importance of deepening our understanding and improving predictions of the Earth system on all time scales, efforts are now underway to develop forecasting models into Earth-system models (ESMs), capable of representing all components of the coupled Earth system (or their aggregated behavior) and their response to external changes. Modeling the Earth system is a much more difficult problem than weather forecasting, not least because the model must represent the alternate (e.g., future) coupled states of the system for which there are no historical observations. Given that the physical principles that enable predictions about the response of the Earth system are often not explicitly coded in these ML-based models, demonstrating the credibility of ML-based ESMs thus requires us to build evidence of their consistency with the physical system. To this end, this paper puts forward five recommendations to enhance comprehensive, standardized, and independent evaluation of ML-based ESMs to strengthen their credibility and promote their wider use.
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