用双神经微分方程融合物理规律与数据,提升空气质量预测精度
Air Quality Prediction with Physics-Guided Dual Neural ODEs in Open Systems
- 设计双分支神经ODE:一用开放系统物理方程,一纯数据驱动补全残差
- 在多个空间尺度上达到当前最优预测效果,有效捕捉时空相关性
- 适合需要高精度、可解释性空气污染预测的环境政策与城市规划者
空气污染严重威胁人类健康与生态系统,亟需有效的空气质量预测以支持公共政策制定。传统方法分为基于物理模型与数据驱动模型两类:前者计算成本高且假设封闭系统,后者常忽略关键物理动态,难以准确捕捉时空关联。尽管已有物理引导方法尝试结合两者优势,但显式物理方程与隐式学习表征之间常存在不匹配。为此,我们提出Air-DualODE,一种新型物理引导方法,通过双分支神经微分方程实现空气质量预测。第一分支采用开放系统物理方程,捕获时空依赖以学习物理动力学;第二分支则完全数据驱动,识别第一分支未覆盖的依赖关系。两分支在时间上对齐并融合,显著提升预测准确性。实验表明,Air-DualODE在多种空间尺度下均实现最先进的污染物浓度预测性能,为实际空气污染挑战提供有力解决方案。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Air pollution significantly threatens human health and ecosystems, necessitating effective air quality prediction to inform public policy. Traditional approaches are generally categorized into physics-based and data-driven models. Physics-based models usually struggle with high computational demands and closed-system assumptions, while data-driven models may overlook essential physical dynamics, confusing the capturing of spatiotemporal correlations. Although some physics-guided approaches combine the strengths of both models, they often face a mismatch between explicit physical equations and implicit learned representations. To address these challenges, we propose Air-DualODE, a novel physics-guided approach that integrates dual branches of Neural ODEs for air quality prediction. The first branch applies open-system physical equations to capture spatiotemporal dependencies for learning physics dynamics, while the second branch identifies the dependencies not addressed by the first in a fully data-driven way. These dual representations are temporally aligned and fused to enhance prediction accuracy. Our experimental results demonstrate that Air-DualODE achieves state-of-the-art performance in predicting pollutant concentrations across various spatial scales, thereby offering a promising solution for real-world air quality challenges.
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