arXiv:2410.20072cs.LGmath.DS2024-10被引 12

提出CGKN框架,同时实现复杂系统预测与高效数据同化。

CGKN: A Deep Learning Framework for Modeling Complex Dynamical Systems and Efficient Data Assimilation

  • 将非线性系统转为带条件高斯结构的神经微分方程
  • 在三个湍流系统中实现高精度预测与低计算开销同化
  • 适合需要精准不确定性量化和实时同化的科研场景

深度学习广泛应用于科学与工程领域中的复杂动力系统预测。然而,这些模型的黑箱特性给同时进行数据同化(DA)带来挑战,而后者是状态估计、模型识别和缺失数据重构的关键技术。将基于集合的DA方法与非线性深度学习模型结合计算成本高且易受采样误差影响。为此,我们提出一种新框架——条件高斯柯尔莫哥洛夫网络(CGKN),将一般非线性系统转化为具有条件高斯结构的非线性神经微分方程。该框架在保留关键非线性特征的同时,施加系统化且最小化的简化,便于推导非线性DA的解析公式,从而可无缝嵌入深度学习训练过程,无需像集合方法那样依赖经验调参。通过提升系统维度(受柯尔莫哥洛夫理论启发)弥补结构简化带来的损失,并在升维空间中利用特殊非线性动态,使模型能捕捉极端事件及强非高斯分布特征,同时提供恰当的不确定性量化。我们在三个强非线性、非高斯的湍流系统上验证了其有效性:投影随机伯格斯-西瓦辛斯基方程、Lorenz 96系统以及厄尔尼诺-南方涛动系统。结果表明,CGKN具有鲁棒性和计算高效性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Deep learning is widely used to predict complex dynamical systems in many scientific and engineering areas. However, the black-box nature of these deep learning models presents significant challenges for carrying out simultaneous data assimilation (DA), which is a crucial technique for state estimation, model identification, and reconstructing missing data. Integrating ensemble-based DA methods with nonlinear deep learning models is computationally expensive and may suffer from large sampling errors. To address these challenges, we introduce a deep learning framework designed to simultaneously provide accurate forecasts and efficient DA. It is named Conditional Gaussian Koopman Network (CGKN), which transforms general nonlinear systems into nonlinear neural differential equations with conditional Gaussian structures. CGKN aims to retain essential nonlinear components while applying systematic and minimal simplifications to facilitate the development of analytic formulae for nonlinear DA. This allows for seamless integration of DA performance into the deep learning training process, eliminating the need for empirical tuning as required in ensemble methods. CGKN compensates for structural simplifications by lifting the dimension of the system, which is motivated by Koopman theory. Nevertheless, CGKN exploits special nonlinear dynamics within the lifted space. This enables the model to capture extreme events and strong non-Gaussian features in joint and marginal distributions with appropriate uncertainty quantification. We demonstrate the effectiveness of CGKN for both prediction and DA on three strongly nonlinear and non-Gaussian turbulent systems: the projected stochastic Burgers-Sivashinsky equation, the Lorenz 96 system, and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. The results justify the robustness and computational efficiency of CGKN.

动力系统数据同化神经微分方程不确定性量化

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